MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 20

From this week's MAFL Team Dashboard I note that there are two teams sitting below Fremantle that have a superior percentage - the Roos and the Dogs. Further evidence for the fortuity of the Dockers' position resides in the fact that, based on their relative scoring shot production and relative conversion rate for those scoring shots, Fremantle have won almost 1.5 games more than they "should" have.

Other teams whose scoring performance is most misaligned, according to the Win Production Function, with their winning rate are: 

• Melbourne, who've won just under 2 games more than their scoring statistics would predict
• The Suns (also about 2 games more)
• Adelaide and West Coast (about a game more)
• Brisbane (almost 2 games less)
• Carlton and the Roos (each over a game less)
• Sydney and the Dogs (each about a game less) 

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 19

The latest (clickable as always) MAFL Team Dashboard follows.

This week I calculated the rank correlations between teams' ladder positions and their ranking on some of the metrics in the Scoring Shot and Performance by Quarter sections. Here are the results: 

• Rank correlation between ladder position and Scoring Shots For: +0.86
• Rank correlation between ladder position and Scoring Shots Against: +0.97
• Rank correlation between ladder position and Scoring Shots Difference: +0.98
• Rank correlation between ladder position and Own Conversion Rate: -0.09
• Rank correlation between ladder position and Opponents' Conversion Rate: +0.20
• Rank correlation between ladder position and Conversion Rate Difference: +0.12
• Rank correlation between ladder position and ranking on Q1 performances: +0.74
• Rank correlation between ladder position and ranking on Q2 performances: +0.89
• Rank correlation between ladder position and ranking on Q3 performances: +0.57
• Rank correlation between ladder position and ranking on Q4 performances: +0.85

What I make from all of this is that, so far this year, the better-performed teams have differentiated themselves by forcing their opponents to have more difficult scoring shots (and hence poorer conversion rates) and by being especially effective in 2nd and 4th quarters. It's interesting to note that seven of the teams currently sitting in finals positions on the ladder are amongst the top 8 teams ranked on 4th quarter performances. 

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 18

Here's the latest Team Dashboard:

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 17

It's been a while since we looked in any detail on a team-by-team basis at the MAFL Team Dashboard, so let's chronicle the best and worst statistics for each team. 

• Adelaide
  • best statistic: opponents only convert at 49.2% when playing them, the 3rd-lowest opponent conversion rate of any team.
  • worst statistic: there are a few candidates, but the standout is probably their scoring shot production, which stands at 20.9 per game, better only than Port Adelaide's.
• Brisbane Lions
  • best statistic: their own conversion rate is 53.6%, ranking them 8th on this metric. They're also the 8th-best performers in 1st terms.
  • worst statistic: 16th on the ladder. Hard to do much worse than that.
• Carlton
  • best statistic: they're 2nd on scoring shot production with 28.5 per game and 2nd on the difference between their and their opponents' scoring shot production.
  • worst statistic: they convert those scoring shots at only 50.7%, 13th-highest in the League
• Collingwood
  • best statistic: they're 1st on a slew of metrics, not least of them the one that matters most, their ladder position. 
  • worst statistic: though it's improved considerably over the course of the season, their performance in 3rd terms is still only 7th-best.
• Essendon
  • best statistic: they're 2nd-best performers in 3rd terms and they've the 3rd-best conversion rate of any team at 55.4%.
  • worst statistic: they tend to be slow starters and have only the 14th-best 1st quarter performances.
• Fremantle
  • best statistic: they're 3rd on performances in the 3rd term.
  • worst statistic: they've a nasty tendency to drop off in the final term, which has led to them racking up the League's 2nd-worst set of 4th quarter statistics.
• Geelong
  • best statistic: they've the best 3rd term and the best 4th term performance of any team having won 78% and 81% of these terms respectively.
  • worst statistic: they're slow starters, with their 44% record in 1st terms ranking them 10th on this metric.
• Gold Coast
  • best statistic: 'best' is not really an appropriate description for any of their statistics. Their 'least worst' is probably their ladder position of 15th though they're also 15th on scoring shot production, churning out one about every four minutes of play.
  • worst statistic:  take your pick.
• Hawthorn
  • best statistic: they're the 2nd-best team in 2nd terms having won 73% of them.
  • worst statistic: they're only the 7th-best team in 1st terms, though even there they have a 60% record.
• Kangaroos
  • best statistic: they rank 6th on scoring shot production with 26.5 per game.
  • worst statistic: they rank 13th on opponent scoring shot conversion which, at 53.7% and coupled with a paltry 51.7% own conversion rate, sees them ranked 14th on the difference between own and opponent conversion rates.
• Melbourne
  • best statistic: they're 6th on opponent conversion rate at just 51.5%.
  • worst statistic: they're 3rd-last in 4th terms having won just 33% of them.
• Port Adelaide
  • best statistic: comfortably best is their own conversion rate, which is 2nd in the League at 56.8%.
  • worst statistic: though they've converted well they've had far too few scoring shots to convert. They're worst in the League on this metric at just 20.6 per game.
• Richmond
  • best statistic: they rank 5th on opponents' conversion rate, which stands at just 51.1%.
  • worst statistic: they are the poorest starters in the competition having won only 22% of their 1st terms.
• St Kilda
  • best statistic: no team starts better than they do. They've won 80% of their 1st quarters and recorded a 145 percentage in doing so.
  • worst statistic: they back-end those sterling 1st terms with appalling 2nd terms, winning only 30% of them, which ranks them 14th on this metric.
• Sydney
  • best statistic: they've allowed their opponents to convert at only 47%, the lowest opponent conversion rate in the competition.
  • worst statistic: they've converted almost as poorly as their opponents. At just 47.7%, they're the 2nd-worst in the League on this metric.
• West Coast
  • best statistic: they've the 2nd-lowest metric for opponent scoring shot production at just 20.7 per game.
  • worst statistic: bizarrely for a team lying 4th on the ladder, they've the 4th-worst own conversion rate (50%), the 3rd-worst opponent conversion rate (56.9%), and the 2nd-worst set of performances in 3rd terms (they've won only 1 in 3).
• Western Bulldogs
  • best statistic: they've the highest conversion rate in the competition at 57.1%.
  • worst statistic: they're 12th in terms of own and opponent scoring shot production, and 12th on the ladder.

Here's the entire Dashboard:

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 16

With the Cats and the Roos both losing yet again this week, the uncanny accuracy of the Win Production function has improved so that only five teams remain that have won or lost more than 1 game more than their scoring statistics would suggest.

Fremantle has won 1.5 games more than their scoring statistics would portend, Geelong 1.4 games more, and the Gold Coast 1.1 games more, while the Lions have lost 1.1 games more and the Dons 1.5 games more. Every other team is within 1 win of what you'd predict using the Win Production function we discussed here.