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Swings and Roundabouts in the 2014 AFL Draw

The GWS Giants have, according to one analysis at least, the worst draw of any team in the competition in 2014.

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2013 : MARS Ratings After Round 27 (Finals Week 4)

Hawthorn did just enough in the Grand Final to snatch a little less than half a Rating Point (RP) from Fremantle to end the season Ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,052.3 having accumulated 27 RPs across the season, the most of any team.

Fremantle exited the GF Ranked 3rd having netted just under 24 RPs across the season, behind the Cats who finished Ranked 2nd after bolstering their Rating by 25 RPs. The Roos, who accumulated 17 RPs, the 4th-highest of any team, finished 5th on the MARS Ladder, while the Swans, who eventually squirreled only 10.6 RPs, finished Ranked 4th.

At the other end of the Ladder, Melbourne shed most RPs across the season, 50.3, to finish Ranked 17th, and GWS shed 2nd-most, 41 RPs, to finish Ranked 18th.

The final team MARS Rating worms for the season show the Lions, Pies, Dockers, Cats, Hawks, Roos and Tigers preparing to enter season 2014 with Ratings momentum behind them, and the Dons, Giants, Dees, Swans and Eagles with work to do to reverse their Ratings slides.


Grand Final and All-Final History by Ladder Position: 2000 to 2013

Hawthorn's victory in the 2013 Grand Final lifted the record of minor premiers in GFs for the period since 2000 above 50%. 

That record now stands at 6 and 5, and includes a 3 and 1 record against teams, like Fremantle, finishing 3rd in the home and away season.

It's now the case that the only ladder positions with a better than 50% record in Grand Finals are 1st and 2nd - which is, I think, as it should be.

Reviewing the collective records for the same period of teams from the eight ladder positions contesting the Finals we find that minor premiers now enjoy a 71% record including a 21 and 8 tally for the last three weeks of the series, and that runners' up in the home and away season have a 68% record, with an 18 and 9 tally for those same three weeks.

Teams finishing 3rd now have a barely better than 50-50 record in Finals, while the fourth-best record belongs to teams finishing 6th, which have won 12 and lost 14 (46%). Their 0 and 2 record in Preliminary Finals has meant that none have progressed to the Grand Final however.

The teams with the worst collective record are those who ended the home and away season in 7th. They have a 4 and 14 record and none has progressed beyond the Semi Finals.

For those of you who might be curious about how the progress of the Finals this year has compared with Finals in years past, here's a summary of each series since 2000.


2013 : Round 27 (Finals Week 4) - Results

A punter's opinion about a contest doesn't much matter unless he or she acts on it with a wager.

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2013 : Round 27 (Week 4 of the Finals) - Wagers & Tips

Sometime late on Saturday afternoon Fremantle will be celebrating their first-ever Flag.

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