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Simulating the Finals for 2013 : Pre-Week 3

The week leading up to the Preliminary Finals is always revealing of the TAB Bookmaker's methods because he chooses to post markets for both of the Preliminary Finals, for all possible Grand Finals Quinellas, and for all four remaining teams for the Flag.

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Simulating the Finals for 2013 : Pre-Week 2

At this stage of the season it's apparent that MARS rates the Swans and the Cats more highly than does the TAB Bookmaker, partly because MARS is less sensitive/susceptible (you choose which) to short-term fluctuations in team form. As a result, the latest round of Finals Simulations reflect, on average, better outcomes for these teams.

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Simulating the Finals for 2013 : Pre-Week 1

There's not a lot of value in the TAB Sportsbet market for the AFL Finals right now, save for some generous pricing in relation to the Hawks in the Flag and Make-the-GF markets.

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Simulating the Finalists for 2013 : Post Round 22 - An Alternative Approach

As I alluded to in the previous blog, team differential is not an ideal proxy for team percentage right now and will, in some instances, lead to misleading simulation results.

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Simulating the Finalists for 2013 : Post Round 22

What a strange and intriguing time it is to be following - and trying to predict - AFL football. As I write this, just three days from the start of the final home-and-away series of games, and just one week more distant from the Finals, there's still no complete resolution of the Essendon debacle and no definitive statement about whether they will or will not play in those Finals.

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