MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 23

Before providing the final Team Dashboard of the season I want to present a summary view of each team's performance this season, which I've done by creating a bubble chart where the area is proportional to the victory margin in the relevant game and the colour reflects the result from the viewpoint of the Home team.

One aspect of the season that I think this chart makes particularly clear is the general narrowness of the Roos' defeats. To see this, peruse the collection of small, red circles on the row labelled "Kangaroos" and the assemblage of small, green circles - which also denote Roos losses - in the column labelled similarly.

Also highlighted by this chart is the magnitude of many GWS and Melbourne losses and, more subtly, the inequity of the home-and-away clashes that were missed as a consequence of the non all-plays-all home-and-away nature of the AFL draw. Which team wouldn't, for example, want one of those large green circles that proliferate in the columns labelled "GWS" or "Melbourne"?

With that by way of entree, here's the season's final Team Dashboard:

(I've left the Dons in 7th though I realise that, officially, they'll finish 9th.)

The Roos, therefore, have missed out on a place in the Finals despite finishing the season having scored, on average, about 20% more points than their opponents, ranking them 5th amongst all teams, while Port Adelaide have made it after racking up only a bit over 2% more points than they conceded.

Somewhat unusually, half of the teams that have lived to fight another week found themselves on the end of a loss this week, while five of the teams that won't participate in the Finals were victorious. The end of any AFL season is often a curious time ...

At the end of the home-and-away season only two teams have recorded more than two wins fewer than would have been expected based on their scoring shot data and MAFL's Win Production Function: Adelaide, who recorded 2.6 wins fewer, and the Roos, who recorded over 5 wins fewer. No team recorded more than 1.6 wins more than would have been expected, and half of the teams finished within 1 win - plus or minus - of the number we'd have expected.

Hawthorn finished the home-and-away season as the team generating the greatest number of scoring shots per game, while the Dees finished as the team generating the fewest. Fremantle conceded the fewest and GWS the greatest number per game.

Fremantle also recorded the highest scoring shot conversion rate, and Carlton the lowest, while GWS allowed the greatest proportion of scoring shots to be converted to goals and Carlton allowed the smallest proportion - how else could the Blues have hoped to have made the Finals given their own inability to convert?

The Roos were best at 1st Quarters, Sydney at 2nd Quarters, Geelong at 3rd Quarters, and Port Adelaide at 4th Quarters, while worst, respectively, were the Dogs, Dees, Giants and the Saints.

Rank correlations between final ladder position and ranking on the various metrics were as follows:

• Competition Ladder vs Own Scoring Shot production: +0.78
• Competition Ladder vs Opponent Scoring Shot production: +0.90
• Competition Ladder vs Own Conversion rate: +0.52
• Competition Ladder vs Opponent Conversion rate: +0.29
• Competition Ladder vs Q1 Performances: +0.76
• Competition Ladder vs Q2 Performances: +0.95
• Competition Ladder vs Q3 Performances: +0.74
• Competition Ladder vs Q4 Performances: +0.56

This year, it seems, success was very much about ensuring that opponent's scoring opportunities were hard to convert and about performing especially well in 2nd terms.

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 22

Should Port Adelaide defeat Carlton next week and, as some are suggesting might the case, the Dons are excluded from the Finals or choose not to participate, then it's possible we'll have a team, the Brisbane Lions, playing in the Finals with a percentage below 90 and another team, the Roos, not playing despite recording a percentage during the home-and-away season above 120. 

In truth, even if they lose, Carlton would still be favoured to grab any vacated Finals berth however, as the scenario just outlined would require that the Lions draw with or defeat the Cats, which seems unlikely, especially in light of the Lions' near loss to the lowly Dogs this week after leading by over 50 points..

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 21

Here's the latest Team Dashboard, revealing that the competition's finalists are now all but resolved and that the makeup of the Top 4 is completely determined, if not their ordering.

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 20

It's been a little while since we looked at the strengths and weaknesses of each team in terms of the metrics on the MAFL Team Dashboard, so let's do that this week: 

• Adelaide, 12th on the ladder, are 17th on Own Conversion rate, but 3rd in final terms
• Brisbane, 13th on the ladder, are 18th on Own Conversion rate, but 8th on Opponent Conversion rate and in final terms 
• Carlton, 9th on the ladder, are 13th on Own Conversion rate and in final terms, but 1st on Opponent Conversion rate
• Collingwood, 5th on the ladder, are 13th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 4th on Opponent Scoring Shots per game
• Essendon, 7th on the ladder, are 11th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 4th in final terms
• Fremantle, 4th on the ladder, are 14th on Own Scoring Shots per game, but 1st on Opponent Scoring Shots per game
• Geelong, 2nd on the ladder, are 16th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 1st on 3rd Quarter performances
• Hawthorn, 1st on the ladder, are 9th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 1st on Own Scoring Shots per game
• Kangaroos, 11th on the ladder, are 11th on 3rd Quarter performances (yes, 11th is the worst ranking they have on any metric), but 1st on 1st Quarter performances and on Own Conversion rate
• Melbourne, 17th on the ladder, are 18th on Own Scoring Shots per game and on 2nd Quarter performances, but 10th on Opponent Conversion rate
• Port Adelaide, 8th on the ladder, are 15th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 1st in final terms
• Richmond, 6th on the ladder, are 14th on Own Conversion rate, but 4th on Opponent Conversion rate
• St Kilda, 16th on the ladder, are 17th on performances in final terms, but 7th on Opponent Conversion rate
• Sydney, 3rd on the ladder, are 11th on performances in final terms, but 1st on 2nd Quarter performances
• West Coast, 10th on the ladder, are 18th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 4th on Own Scoring Shots per game and in 3rd terms
• Western Bulldogs, 15th on the ladder, are 18th on performances in 1st terms, but 6th on Own Conversion rate

Having read that list, it's probably no surprise that the weakest rank correlation between competition ladder position and ranking on any single metric is for Opponent Conversion rate, for which it is only +0.18. The next-weakest correlation is with Own Conversion rate where it's +0.51.

Strongest correlations are for Opponent Scoring Shots per game (+0.93), and for performances in 2nd Quarters (+0.92). Surprisingly - to me anyway - the correlation between performances in final terms and competition ladder position is a relatively weak +0.60.

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 19

Here's the latest Team Dashboard, which shows Sydney and Port Adelaide as the only teams in the Top 8 with winning streaks extending beyond two games, and which shows losses for three of the teams currently in the top five ladder positions.