MAFL 2012 : Team Dashboard for Round 1

Not a lot to comment on in the Team Dashboard after just one round other than to note that Adelaide and West Coast have yet to lose a quarter this season and, therefore, that their opponents in Gold Coast and the Dogs have yet to win a quarter.

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 24

The final MAFL Team Dashboard for season 2011 follows.

Here are a few final observations: 

• The Roos, despite not making the Finals, have nonetheless finished the home-and-away season with a percentage above 100.
• St Kilda and Sydney kicked only 275 and 267 goals respectively across their 22 matches, fewer than, for example, Melbourne, which finished 13th
• Essendon conceded 326 in its 22 games, more goals than the 15th-placed Lions conceded
• Port Adelaide kicked an amazingly low 188 behinds all season, 36 fewer than any other team
• Adelaide, though finishing 14th on the ladder, were 5th best on Opponent Conversion Rate. They were also 9th in 1st terms and 8th in final terms
• Brisbane, 15th on the ladder, finished 7th on Own Conversion Rate. They also won 2.5 games fewer than their scoring statistics suggest they should have. As well, they finished 11th on 1st terms and 10th on 3rd terms
• Carlton ran 5th on the ladder but 14th on Own Conversion Rate. So good were their scoring statistics generally, they won 2 games fewer than the Win Production Function predicts
• Collingwood finished as minor premiers but were 5th on Own Conversion Rate
• Essendon came 8th but ranked 14th on Opponent Conversion Rate and 12th on 1st terms
• Fremantle were 11th on the ladder but 15th on Own Conversion Rate. They won over 2 games more than their scoring statistics suggest they should have. They also finished 6th on 3rd term performances
• Geelong finished 2nd but were 11th on Opponent Conversion Rate and 8th on 1st terms
• Melbourne ranked 13th on the ladder but last on final terms
• Port Adelaide finished second-last but were, astonishingly, second on Own Conversion Rate
• Richmond came 12th but were 8th on Own Scoring Shots per Game and 16th on 1st terms
• St Kilda wound up 6th but were 13th on Own Scoring Shots per Game and 2nd on Opponent Conversion Rate. They were also 1st on 1st terms, 10th on 2nd terms, and 12th on 3rd terms
• Sydney were 7th on the ladder but 16th on Own Conversion Rate and 1st on Opponent Conversion Rate
• West Coast finished 4th despite the twin handicaps of finishing 13th on Own Conversion Rate and 16th on Opponent Conversion Rate. They also finished 14th on 3rd terms
• The Western Bulldogs came 10th but were 1st on Own Conversion Rate and 5th on 3rd term performances

 Finally, I'd note that: 

• Collingwood won 82% of 2nd terms and more than doubled its opponents' scores in 2nd and final terms
• The Gold Coast won less than 20% of its 1st, 2nd an 3rd terms. Only mercy, perhaps, allowed it to win 27% of final terms
• Port Adelaide won only 18% of 2nd terms
• Richmond won only 20% of 1st terms
• St Kilda won 77% of 1st terms and recorded a percentage of 150, then won only 41% of 2nd and of 3rd terms, and 55% of final terms, recording a percentage of just 85 in 2nd terms in doing so
• Sydney recorded a percentage of just 84 in 3rd terms
• West Coast recorded a percentage of just 87 in 3rd terms

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 23

Ranking the teams on the basis of what the Win Production Function suggests their winning rate should be given their scoring shot performance across the season, only one change would be made to the composition of the current top 8 on the ladder:  the Dons would drop to ninth and the Roos would grab 8th.

Further, within the top 8 there'd be only one change of order with the Blues taking 4th at the expense of West Coast; the five remaining teams would be ordered exactly as per their position on the competition ladder.

Further down the ladder the shuffling would be only a little more vigorous. Apart from Melbourne, who'd drop from 12th to 15th on the strength of their scoring shot performance, and the Dogs, who'd climb from 13th to 10th, no team would change position by more than one spot.

So, on the basis of just two pieces of data about each team, scoring shot differential and conversion differential, we could replicate the current competition ladder ordering to within one spot for every team bar two of them, neither of them in finals contention. Seems the Win Production Function does a good job of distilling the key aspects of team performance for season 2011, as it has done for many seasons in the past.

Anyway, here's the latest Team Dashboard.

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 22

In a post for the Statistical Analysis journal in 2009 I investigated whether it was better for a team to lead or to trail narrowly at the end of a quarter. This analysis was motivated by a journal article investigating the phenomenon for NCAA basketball, which found that teams in this competition that trailed narrowly at half-time went on to win at a rate statistically significantly greater than 50%. I found only scant evidence for this in VFL/AFL football.

Click to read more ...

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 21

Here 'tis: