;)
Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 12:11AM In the most recent post on the Simulations blog I assumed that Home Team and Away Team scores were independently and Normally distributed (about their conditional means). I'll investigate both these assumptions in this blog.
Saturday, June 9, 2012 at 12:23PM In the previous blog on this topic I described a way to estimate the vig embedded in the head-to-head prices of both teams
Thursday, June 7, 2012 at 7:16PM You'll recall that the total overround embedded in the head-to-head market, ignoring the possibility of a draw, is calculated by summing the reciprocal of the head-to-head prices for each team. So, for example, if the head-to-head prices for a game were $1.20 / $4.60, the overround would be 1/1.2 + 1/4.6, which is 105.1%. Some subtract 1 from this figure and would report this overround as 5.1%.
Saturday, May 5, 2012 at 12:23AM In the previous blog, among other things we analysed which quarter winning teams win. We might also ask about winnng teams, in what proportion of games do they trail at the end of a particular quarter, and how has this proportion tracked over the seasons.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012 at 11:25PM We've looked before at the topic of which quarter winning teams win. Today, first up, we'll revisit this issue in more depth.
