;)
Saturday, September 29, 2012 at 10:31PM As a road-test of the Brownian Motion-inspired models we created for an earlier blog, I applied them to the in-running scores of the 2012 Hawthorn v Sydney Grand Final, to track the teams' modelled victory probabilities as the match progressed.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012 at 9:21PM The final victory margin is one measure of how close a contest was, but it can sometimes mislead when the team that's in front midway through the final term piles on a slew of late goals against a progressively more demoralised opponent, improving its percentage in so doing, but also erasing any trace of the fact that the game might have been a close-run thing throughout the first three-and-a-half or more quarters.
Sunday, September 23, 2012 at 8:31PM I can think of a number of ways that an AFL season might be characterised but for today's blog I'm going to call on a modelling approach that I used back in 2010, which is based on Brownian motion and which was inspired by a JASA paper from Hal S Stern.
Thursday, September 20, 2012 at 9:13PM This week Collingwood faces Sydney having played its Semi-Final only 6 day previously while Adelaide take on Hawthorn a more luxurious 8 days after their Semi-Final encounter. The gap for Sydney has been 13 days while that for the Hawks has been 15 days. In this blog we'll assess what, if any, effect these differential gaps between games for competing finalists might have on game outcome.
Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 8:43PM Based on empirical evidence we know that there is a home ground advantage in AFL which, in part, might be attributable to the pro-Home team leanings amongst the majority of the crowd. In this blog I want to explore a slightly different question about the effects of the crowd: specifically, does the size of the crowd matter too?
