;)
Saturday, April 24, 2010 at 6:33PM Today's blog is the first in a series that will look at statistically modelling the scoring behaviour of teams in the AFL. If you're profoundly reductionist about it, you can think about a team's footy score as being the product of the number of scoring shots it creates and the proportion of those scoring shots that it converts into goals.
Monday, April 12, 2010 at 10:00PM Last weekend's goal-kicking was strikingly poor, as I commented in the previous blog, and this led me to wonder about the trends in kicking accuracy across football history. Just about every sport I can think of has seen significant improvements in the techniques of those playing and this has generally led to improved performance. If that applies to football then we could reasonably expect to see higher levels of accuracy across time.
Saturday, April 3, 2010 at 11:56PM For a while now I've harboured a suspicion that teams that trail at a quarter's end but that have had more scoring shots than their opponent have a better chance of winning than teams that trail by a similar amount but that have had fewer scoring shots than their opponent. Suspicions that are amenable to trial by data have a Constitutional right to their day in court, so let me take you through the evidence.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010 at 11:05PM In Sunday's blog I introduced the three probability scoring methods that I'll be using to evaluate the HELP model's predictive performance this season.
Monday, March 29, 2010 at 7:56PM Many of you, I'm sure, have participated in tipping competitions where the leader after a few rounds seems to be unfettered by any knowledge of the game. Frustrating though that can be, some solace can be found by determining how likely it is that their performance can be written off to chance.
