The Relationship Between Head-to-Head Price and Points Start

I've found yet another MAFL-related use for the Eureqa tool, this time to determine the precise relationship between a team's head-to-head price and the start it's giving or receiving on line betting. A simple plot of the history of a team's head-to-head price (or the probability that can be inferred from it) versus its start on line betting makes it obvious that there's a relationship between the two and that it's a non-linear one, but in the past I've been constrained by my own (lack of) ingenuity and persistence in generating sufficient possibilities to find its exact nature.

Click to read more ...

Building The Super Smart Model

In a previous blog we investigated the information content of bookie prices in the context of predicting the victory margin of a game.

Click to read more ...

What Do Bookies Know That We Don't?

Bookies, I think MAFL has comprehensively shown, know a lot about football, but just how much more do they know than what you or I might glean from a careful review of each team's recent results and some other fairly basic knowledge about the venues at which games are played?

Click to read more ...

In-Running Wagering: What's the Best Strategy?

With services such as Betfair now offering in-running wagering opportunities, the ability to accurately assess a team's chances of victory at any given point in a game is now of considerable commercial value. Imagine, for example, that your team, who are at home, lead by 18 points at the first change. Would a wager on them at $1.40 be advised?

Click to read more ...

In-Running Prediction of the Winner of an AFL Game

I've been planning to create this model for a while. With it, you can calculate the probability that the home team will eventually prevail given the state of the match at a particular point in the game.

Click to read more ...