;)
Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 12:17AM Across a series of blogs now we've explored the Super Smart Model (SSM) and investigated its ability to predict victory margins. In this blog we'll look more closely at which variables most influence SSM's forecasts.
Thursday, July 15, 2010 at 8:16PM The best way to trial a potential Fund algorithm, I'm beginning to appreciate, is to publish each week the forecasts that it makes. This forces me to work through the mechanics of how it would be used in practice and, importantly, to set down what restrictions should be applied to its wagering - for example should it, like most of the current Funds, only bet on Home Teams, and in which round of the season should it start wagering.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 11:01PM In my previous blog I used Eureqa to find a simpler version of the equations for updating MARS Ratings. There I jumped straight to what I deemed the 'best' solution that Eureqa had found, glossing over a slew of perfectly adequate and much simpler solutions that it also found.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 8:59PM It's official: Eureqa is an amazing tool. With all the recent model-building I've been undertaking and writing up here in various blogs, I've become more aware of the predictive power of MARS Ratings.
Monday, July 12, 2010 at 9:03PM In earlier blogs I've claimed that there's not much additional information in bookie prices that's useful for predicting victory margins than what can be derived from a statistical analysis of recent results and an understanding of game venues.
