2012 Round 1b : He's Done What to the Overround?

Last week didn't really feel like the start of the season to me. Sure there was a game and goals counted only for six points regardless of their point of origin, but it still felt like an entree - an amuse bouche even. A mismatch that went to script and that, from a statistical point of view, told us little that we didn't already suspect about either of the participants save that, maybe, my Rating the Giants at 900 was a bit harsh. Hardly a game worthy of opening the season.

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2012 Round 1a : Results

Game 1 of the 2012 season went pretty much to script, with the Swans prevailing by a touch over 10 goals.

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2012 : Understanding the Tipsters, Margin Predictors and Fund Algorithms

This week brought an e-mail, nestled amongst the spam-fest that is my inbox of recent times, from a visitor to the MAFL site asking about the details of the algorithms used in MAFL. In preparing what I thought would be a brief reply I realised just how scattered are the posts that you'd need to have read and retained to understand all of what goes into the weekly wagers and predictions that appear in this blog. With the increasing volume of new visitors to MAFL I thought it was time to provide all that information in a single blog.

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2012 Round 1a : More a Whimper Than a Bang

You really couldn't have manufactured a quieter start to the season: one game, expected to be a blowout, and then nothing for 5 days.

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Necessary Beliefs For a Statistical Approach to Wagering

This week I've been thinking a lot about the fundamental beliefs that you need to hold in order for MAFL to make sense as a potential profit-making pasttime. In this blog I'm going to set down what I think that minimal set of beliefs is.

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