;)
Sunday, April 22, 2012 at 8:15PM | Post a Comment Investors' last-minute wager on the Giants was the only thing standing between them and a small profit this weekend, though to call that wager out simply because it was the last one placed, is perhaps to do it an injustice. Certainly there were other wagers that teased for far less time.
Friday, April 20, 2012 at 7:02PM | Post a Comment Late this afternoon (Friday) the TAB deigned to post a SuperMargin market on the Crows v Giants game, so Investors are now also on the Crows to win by 20-29 points. That does seem an unlikely result, I'll admit, which is why we're getting $21 for our troubles.
Thursday, April 19, 2012 at 10:21PM | Post a Comment For the first few rounds of a new season, we know that team rankings based on MARS Ratings are heavily influenced by the Ratings that teams carried over from the previous season. Still, it's interesting to see what those Ratings and rankings currently are and the direction in which each team's Rating is headed.
;)
Already, Carlton has emerged as the clear number 1 team, rated 1,029 ahead of four more teams that are Rated between 1,020 and 1,025. Another, arguably even bigger surprise in terms of Ratings change has been Collingwood, who've dropped almost 7 Ratings Points (RPs) across the season, 5 of them last week, and are now at risk of slipping back to 6th behind a Saints team with considerable momentum.
Overall, there's a high level of agreement between ranking based on MARS Ratings and positions on the Competition Ladder. For example, amongst the teams Rated in the top 8 based on MARS, 6 of them fill places in the top 8 on the Competition Ladder. At the level of the individual teams, the biggest discrepancies are for the Cats (MARS Rated 3rd but 10th on the Ladder) and the Pies (Rated 5th but 12th on the Ladder). No other team is Rated more than 5 places higher or lower than its Ladder position, and for 9 teams the discrepancy is no greater than 2 places.
;)
Turning lastly to team momentum, measured here by a team's change in MARS Rating since the start of the season, Carlton's steep climb is apparent, but so too is that of the Eagles and, to a lesser extent, the Saints.
Six more teams have gained about 3 RPs or more across the 3 rounds of the season to date.
The Dees, the Dogs and the Suns have been the biggest shedders, each dropping over 10 RPs each, while Collingwood and GWS have proven to be solid secondary sources of RPs, each surrendering 6 to 7 points to the market.
Geelong and Brisbane have been the only other teams to offer up multiple RPs.
In coming weeks I'll start tracking teams' Massey and Colley Ratings too, and we'll return to the issue of competitive balance.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012 at 11:08PM | Post a Comment The TAB Sportsbet bookmaker is once again having nothing to do with the Giants' game. This week we care about this lack of interest though, since we want to get on the home team Crows on the SuperMargin market.
Monday, April 16, 2012 at 9:06PM | Post a Comment Apologies that this blog is 24 hours late. It surely wasn't for lack of motivation - after all, Investors did have their first wagering return for the season - but instead was down to a lack of a fully functional laptop.
