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« 2012 Round 1b : He's Done What to the Overround? | Main | 2012 : Understanding the Tipsters, Margin Predictors and Fund Algorithms »

2012 Round 1a : Results

Game 1 of the 2012 season went pretty much to script, with the Swans prevailing by a touch over 10 goals.

That result left only two of the MAFL prognosticators on the wrong side of the result: HSH, which went with a GWS victory on account of the game's venue, and the Line Fund Probability Predictor which narrowly favoured the Swans to cover the 99.5 point spread they were facing on the TAB Sportsbet market.

In head-to-head tipping then 12 of the 13 Tipsters are on 1 from 1. Best amongst the Margin Predictors was Bookie 9, which recorded an Absolute Prediction Error (APE) of just 12 points. Next best was Bookie 3 with an APE of 15 points, followed by CN2 with an APE of 17 points. The worst of the Margin Predictors was HU3, which recorded an APE of 53 points.

Amongst the Probability Predictors, the Bookie Predictor scored highest, having afforded the Swans a 94% chance of victory. WinPred and ProPred were next best, while Head-to-Head Unadjusted recorded the smallest probability score of all by virtue of its assessment that the Swans were only 68% chances.


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