MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 8

This week I'll draw your attention to the right-hand portion of the Scoring Shot Data, which provides information about each team's actual performance in terms of competition points earned, relative to what might be expected based on the team's scoring shot metrics and the win production function I derived back in this blog from 2011. (Note that I'm using the first equation from that blog).

According to this analysis, the teams that have achieved significantly more wins than their scoring shot data would predict are: 

• Geelong, who've won 88% of their games when their scoring statistics would predict a 67% record,
• Collingwood, who've won 63% of their games when their scoring statistics would predict a 46% record, and
• The Brisbane Lions, who've won 38% of their games when their scoring statistics would predict a 24% record

Confirmatory evidence for the relative good fortune of these three teams comes from the fact that both the Cats and the Pies have recorded 3 victories by less than 3 goals, and that the Lions have recorded 2 victories by less than 2 goals.

Conversely, the teams that have achieved significantly fewer wins than their scoring shot data would predict are: 

• Adelaide, who've won 50% of their games when their scoring statistics would predict a 72% record,
• The Roos, who've won 38% of their games when their scoring statistics would predict a 59% record, and
• St Kilda, who've won 25% of their games when their scoring statistics would predict a 40% record

Again we can find support for these assessments in relevant game margins: Adelaide have lost 2 games by less than 2 goals, while the Roos have lost 4 games and the Saints 3 games by less than 3 goals.  

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 7

Here's the latest Team Dashboard, about which I'll make a single observation: the Cats, despite being the only undefeated team, have conceded more points than all but two of the top 11 teams on the competition ladder, and more than two other teams below these top 11.

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 6

This week I'm going to discuss some of the rank correlations between various of the metrics on the Team Dashboard and teams' competition ladder positions.

Firstly, looking at the metrics in the Scoring Shot Data section, we find the following correlations with ladder position (the equivalent correlations for the Team Dashboard at the end of the 2012 home-and-away season are in brackets): 

• Correlation with Own Scoring Shots per Game : +0.79 (+0.88)
• Correlation with Opponent Scoring Shots per Game : +0.78 (+0.77)
• Correlation with Difference in Scoring Shots per Game : +0.95 (+0.89)
• Correlation with Own Conversion Rate : +0.27 (+0.70)
• Correlation with Opponent Conversion Rate : +0.23 (+0.29)
• Correlation with Difference in Conversion Rate : +0.39 (+0.69)

The only substantial differences in these correlations from the equivalent figures for last season are those for Own Conversion Rate and the Difference in Conversion Rate. This season then, so far, it's been more important for teams to create lots of scoring shots and prevent their opponents from doing the same than it has been to convert those opportunities or prevent their opponents from doing so. Put another way, it's been a season for quantity of opportunities rather than quality. 

Finally, consider the correlations between quarter-by-quarter performance rankings and competition ladder position: 

• Q1 performance : +0.39 (+0.79)
• Q2 performance : +0.72 (+0.76)
• Q3 performance : +0.84 (+0.62)
• Q4 performance : +0.65 (+0.70)

The obvious conclusion from this is that 1st terms have been far less important and 3rd terms somewhat more important so far this season than they were in the home-and-away season last year. I'll have more to say about this in a blog I'm planning to write this week. 

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 5

No drive-by commentary this week, just the Dashboard.

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 4

A handful of things that caught my eye as I reviewed this week's Team Dashboard:

• The first 11 teams on the ladder have percentages over 100. When was the last time that was true, I wonder
• Adelaide, in 8th, have scored only about 10 points per game more than GWS, in 18th. Of course they've conceded over 18 points per game fewer as well, which is what explains their more-elevated status
• Geelong's combined victory margins across its four wins is just 48 points
• Port Adelaide have registered almost 12 scoring shots per game more than their opponents. Melbourne have conceded almost 19 more per game than their opponents
• Geelong have the best record of any team in the 3rd quarter, but are 14th and 15th-best in 1st and 2nd terms
• Hawthorn, the Roos and Richmond all have the opposite pattern, faring relatively poorly in 3rd terms and much better in the rest of the game
• Both the Gold Coast in 2nd terms and Melbourne in 3rd terms score only 18 points for every 100 points scored by their opponents in these respective quarters