MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 18

Time, perhaps, again to look at the significant differences between each team's competition ladder position and their ranking on the various Team Dashboard metrics.

Here are some of the major differences: 

• Carlton, 9th on the ladder, are 4th on Scoring Shots per game, and 1st on Opponent Conversion Rate
• Collingwood, 7th on the ladder, are 13th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 16th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• Essendon, 4th on the ladder, are 8th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• Fremantle, 5th on the ladder, are 14th on Scoring Shots per game
• Geelong, 2nd on the ladder, are 13th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• Gold Coast, 14th on the ladder, are 5th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• GWS, 18th on the ladder, are 9th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
• Hawthorn, 1st on the ladder, are 12th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• The Kangaroos, 10th on the ladder, are 2nd on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
• Melbourne, 17th on the ladder, are 8th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 9th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• Port Adelaide, 8th on the ladder, are 12th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 15th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• Richmond, 6th on the ladder, are 15th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
• St Kilda, 16th on the ladder, are 11th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 11th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• Sydney, 3rd on the ladder, are 6th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
• West Coast, 11th on the ladder, are 7th on Own Scoring Shots per game, and 18th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• The Western Bulldogs, 15th on the ladder, are 3rd on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 8th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion

As is apparent from the disparity between ladder position and Scoring Shot Conversion rates laid bare by this list, in 2013 Scoring Shot Conversion rates have mattered little - instead it's been about Scoring Shot production and prevention.

(The Roos are currently the only team who have won or lost (in their case, lost) more than 2 games more than their scoring statistics would suggest they should have.) 

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 17

This week I thought I'd look again at the rank correlations between teams' competition ladder positions and their ranking on some of the metrics from the Team Dashboard.

Currently, the metric most highly correlated with ladder position is the number of Scoring Shots conceded per game for which the rank correlation is +0.90. The next most highly correlated metrics are Scoring Shots created (+0.83) and the teams' performances in 2nd Quarters (also +0.83).

Thereafter come teams' performances in 3rd Quarters (+0.79), teams' performances in 4th Quarters (+0.72), and then teams' performances in 1st Quarters (+0.66). Teams that have led at the first change this season have won only about two-thirds of the time. That's similar to the rate achieved in 2011 but significantly lower than the rate of about 75% that we witnessed in 2012.

The only metrics less correlated with teams' ladder positions are the teams' scoring shot conversion metrics. Teams' own scoring shot conversion rate correlates at only +0.32 with their ladder positions, while the average conversion rate of their opponents correlates at only +0.21. As I think I've noted before, this season has been about the volume of scoring shots created and conceded by teams, not about the rate at which those scoring shots have been converted.

(I'll just note in passing that the Roos, on the back of another loss with a score than would win most games (16.12), have now won almost 4.5 games fewer than their aggregate scoring shot performances for the season and MAFL's Win Production function suggest they should have.)

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 16

Seven of the teams in the competition's top 8 recorded victories this week, all as favourites in their respective games, while the two remaining victories came from the teams now in 9th (also as favourites) and in 13th position.

What now separates the teams in positions 1 and 2 is their respective scoring abilities, as both are equal on competition points and, coincidentally, also on points conceded. Further down the ladder, it's also offensive ability that predominantly separates 4th from 5th, with Sydney's 1,550 points eclipsing Freo's 1,322.

Even further down the ladder, the Roos continue to look oddly out of place, after yet another agonising and narrow loss has left them in 11th place with a 116 percentage, the 2nd-best conversion rate in the league, and the best Q1 statistics of any team.

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 15

The win-production function, which was created early in 2011 and which hasn't been updated since, remains an accurate model for projecting team winning rates.

Click to read more ...

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 14

Having just recorded another week's profitable wagering, I'm in a charitable mood tonight, so I'm going to highlight for each team the metric (or metrics) on which it is currently performing best.

• Adelaide are 4th best in 4th Quarters
• Brisbane Lions are 7th best on Opponent Conversion rate
• Carlton are best on Opponent Conversion rate
• Collingwood are 8th best on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game and on 1st and 2nd Quarters (and 8th on the ladder)
• Essendon are 2nd best on 3rd Quarters
• Fremantle are best on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game and on 2nd Quarters
• Geelong are best in 3rd Quarters
• Gold Coast are 9th on 1st and 3rd Quarters
• GWS are 8th on Own Conversion rate
• Hawthorn are best on Own Scoring Shots per Game, Own Conversion Rate (and 1st on the ladder)
• Kangaroos are best on 1st Quarters
• Melbourne are 10th on Own Conversion rate
• Port Adelaide are best on 4th Quarters
• Richmond are 3rd on 1st Quarters
• St Kilda are 6th on Opponent Conversion rate
• Sydney are 2nd on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game, Opponent Conversion rate, and on 2nd Quarters (they're also 2nd on the ladder)
• West Coast are 4th on Own Scoring Shots per Game and on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game
• Western Bulldogs are 5th on Own Conversion rate