Sunday
Feb242013
Are the Victory Margins for Some Games Harder to Predict than for Others?
Sunday, February 24, 2013 at 12:25PM
It's unarguable that the winner of some games will be harder to predict than the winner of others. When genuine equal-favourites meet, for example, you've only a 50:50 chance of picking the winner, but you can give yourself a 90% chances of being right when a team with a 90% probability of victory meets a team with only a 10% chance. The nearer to equal-favouritism the two teams are, the more difficult the winner is to predict, and the further away we are from this situation the easier the game is to predict.
TonyC | Post a Comment |
tagged LPSO, margin, predictor, surprisals