;)
Friday, March 1, 2013 at 11:51AM Sometimes it's interesting to see where an idea takes you. This blog started out as a wet weekend's musing: how predictive might a margin predictor be if it was based on a single variable?
Sunday, February 24, 2013 at 12:25PM It's unarguable that the winner of some games will be harder to predict than the winner of others. When genuine equal-favourites meet, for example, you've only a 50:50 chance of picking the winner, but you can give yourself a 90% chances of being right when a team with a 90% probability of victory meets a team with only a 10% chance. The nearer to equal-favouritism the two teams are, the more difficult the winner is to predict, and the further away we are from this situation the easier the game is to predict.
LPSO, margin, predictor, surprisals 