2012 Round 5 : Wagers & Tips - Update

Late this afternoon the SuperMargin market for the Roos v Suns game was posted on the TAB site and Investors have now secured the Roos to win by 30-39 points at $13.

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2012 Round 5 : Wagers & Tips

Contrary to his more recent habit of shunning the Giants' games, the TAB Bookmaker posted a head-to-head market for all nine contests this week. He didn't even rate the Giants as this week's "team least likely to succeed", their $11 price comfortably shorter than the Suns' $17.

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2012 Round 5 : Wagers for ANZAC Day

Just a very quick note to let Investors know that they do have wagers on tomorrow's Collingwood v Essendon game, specifically: 

• The Line Fund has 5% on the Pies -5.5 at $1.90
• The Margin Fund has 2.5% on the Pies to win by 10-19 points at $7.50

 Three scenarios are possible:

• The best of all possible worlds, where the Pies win by 10-19 points. Both wagers are therefore collects, the Line Fund rises by 4.5%, the Margin Fund rises by 16.25%, and Portfolios rise by 5.5%.
• The world that's not quite as good but that's still better than the other possible world, where the Pies win by 6 points or more, but not by 10-19 points. In that case the Margin Fund falls by 2.5%, the Line Fund rises by 4.5%, and Portfolios rise by 1.8%
• The most likely but least desirable world, where the Pies win by 5 points or less, draw or lose. Here, both bets are losers, the Margin Fund falls by 2.5%, the Line Fund falls by 5% and Portfolios fall by 3%. 

2012 MARS, Colley and Massey Ratings After Round 4

I introduced the Massey and Colley Ratings Systems to MAFL in the second half of season 2011. This week we'll take a look at these Systems for the first time in 2012 and compare their opinions with those of MAFL's own MARS Ratings.

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Is My SuperMargin Wager Doing Well?

Wagering in the SuperMargin market this season has been as exasperating to me as it's been interesting since I've not known how to feel about a particular score at any point in the game. All I've found myself doing as the game progresses is hoping that the score doesn't stray too far from the required bucket, feeling pleased if it's in the correct bucket sometime in the final term, then rooting for a behind-a-thon from that point onwards. It feels a little like closing my eyes for the first 3000m of the Melbourne Cup then barracking for a short half-head victory by the favourite.

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