2013 : Round 1A - Wagers & Tips (A Few Wagers, Lots of Tips)

It puzzles me still why the AFL would choose to start the season not with a bang, but with a whimper, but whimper it is as just two games are scheduled for the first week of the first round of the season. And it's not as if either game could credibly wear the tag "blockbluster". Friday night sees Adelaide take on Essendon at Football Park, while Saturday promises a Fremantle v West Coast Derby at Subiaco. Interesting? Sure. But season-opening? I don't think so.

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2013 : Understanding the Tipsters, Margin Predictors and Fund Algorithms - An Update

Those of you who read my posts over on the Statistical Analyses journal will know that I've been fairly active these past few months investigating Bookmaker Overround, how it appears to be levied differentially on the Home and the Away teams, and what this means for determining the Bookmaker's Implicit Probabilities.

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2013 : Understanding the Tipsters, Margin Predictors and Fund Algorithms

Compared to most previous seasons, the number of changes to MAFL Funds and algorithms this year has been very small. Consequently, this post from last year remains a good source of general information about how MAFL works. 

The only information I'd add by way of update would be that:

• Many algorithms now use a slightly different version of Implicit Bookmaker Probabilities. The differences between the Implicit Probabilities we'll use now and those we'd use previously given the same market prices are always small, but using the new version of the probabilities does seem to generally improve the predictive powers of the algorithms.
• There are some changes to the MAFL Funds and their underlying algorithms and wagering strategies, which you can read about in this blog. Probably the greatest change is that all Funds will now wager all season long.

For those of you who would like to know even more about the algorithms used in MAFL, I've also created a downloadable PDF with details of each algorithm's inputs, outputs, type/method of creation and purpose, as well as, in some cases, the actual equations themselves. MAFL is nothing if not transparent.

The MAFL Funds for 2013

It's been about four months since the Swans toppled the Hawks in the grand Granny of 2012, bringing to a close the third successive loss-making season for MAFL - because that, of course, is how seasons are remembered around here - and I'll admit that I was ready when the siren fell silent on that Saturday in September to give MAFL a miss for a while. Say a millennium or two.

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The 2012 Home and Away Season: Looking Back and Looking Forward

It's said that those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. Actually, Burke is usually misquoted as having said "those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it", but I just need an excuse to show off some new charts that I've developed for the new season, so either the quote or the misquote will suffice.

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