;)
Sunday, April 14, 2013 at 7:47PM | Post a Comment Another successful SuperMargin wager, a 2 from 3 performance from the Head-to-Head Fund, and a 3 from 5 record for the Line Fund was enough this week to add 1.3c back to the price of the Recommended Portfolio, leaving it now down by just 1.2c on the season.
Wednesday, April 10, 2013 at 6:59PM | Post a Comment It's like the Heritage Fund of a few years back has returned this week, a little older and wiser, chastened perhaps by its GFC experience, but still willing to have a nibble at a rank outsider.
Sunday, April 7, 2013 at 8:08PM | Post a Comment There was a lot to be happy about in this week's results, not least the breaking of the long drought in the collect history of the Margin Fund. Combo_NN2 was responsible for two successful SuperMargin wagers, and Bookie_9 was the source of another and was within a kick of landing two more. These successful wagers have left the Margin Fund up by 10c on the season to date. Shame I reduced the weighting of this Fund this season ...
The other Funds weren't as successful, the Line Fund landing 2 from 3 to make a small profit - though not enough to fully recoup last round's losses - and the Head-to-Head Fund losing its sole wager. That leaves the Recommended Portfolio up by a little under 2c on the round but down by the same amount on the season.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Pleasing too were the results for a number of the Tipsters and Predictors.
Combo_NN2 had a particularly spectacular round, tipping all 9 victors including the narrow-underdog Hawks and margin-predicting with a 25.6 points per game MAPE, that despite the potentially MAPE-destroying 148-point victory by the Dons. This performance has left Combo_NN2 atop both the Head-to-Head Tipster and the Margin Predictor portions of the Leaderboard.
What I'm also encouraged by is the margin predicting performance of this season's new Margin Predictors in the shape of the two RSMP variants and the Bookie variant based on the LPSO approach to deriving implied probability. (For details on these predictors follows the links in this blog post.) The two RSMP Predictors are also showing promising early talent in predicting line betting results, each having correctly chosen in 78% of games so far.
;)
In probability prediction, the TAB Bookmaker is proving difficult to beat once again, but what's pleasing there is that the Risk-Equalising approach to deriving Bookmaker probabilities from market prices is proving very-slightly superior to our previous, Overround-Equalising approach. (Details on the distinction are also available in the blog post I linked to earlier.)
Thursday, April 4, 2013 at 9:26PM | Post a Comment This week Investors have a single Head-to-Head, three Line and ten SuperMargin wagers. The SuperMargin bets are arrayed as two bets - one based on Combo_NN2's opinion and the other on Bookie_9's - on five games. For the first time this week these two opinions differ sufficiently to have us selecting different buckets to wager on in the same game, so we'll have an opportunity to assess the efficacy of the Bookie_9-as-backup strategy that I've concocted for this season.
Monday, April 1, 2013 at 8:09PM | Post a Comment At this point in the season all but the Margin Fund wager smaller amounts than they'll wager later in the year. This is because statistical analysis of historical data suggests that the various algorithms tend to perform less well in these earlier rounds; Round 1 of 2013 has provided ample additional evidence for such hypotheses.
