;)
2013 : Round 2 - Results
Sunday, April 7, 2013 at 8:08PM | Post a Comment There was a lot to be happy about in this week's results, not least the breaking of the long drought in the collect history of the Margin Fund. Combo_NN2 was responsible for two successful SuperMargin wagers, and Bookie_9 was the source of another and was within a kick of landing two more. These successful wagers have left the Margin Fund up by 10c on the season to date. Shame I reduced the weighting of this Fund this season ...
The other Funds weren't as successful, the Line Fund landing 2 from 3 to make a small profit - though not enough to fully recoup last round's losses - and the Head-to-Head Fund losing its sole wager. That leaves the Recommended Portfolio up by a little under 2c on the round but down by the same amount on the season.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Pleasing too were the results for a number of the Tipsters and Predictors.
Combo_NN2 had a particularly spectacular round, tipping all 9 victors including the narrow-underdog Hawks and margin-predicting with a 25.6 points per game MAPE, that despite the potentially MAPE-destroying 148-point victory by the Dons. This performance has left Combo_NN2 atop both the Head-to-Head Tipster and the Margin Predictor portions of the Leaderboard.
What I'm also encouraged by is the margin predicting performance of this season's new Margin Predictors in the shape of the two RSMP variants and the Bookie variant based on the LPSO approach to deriving implied probability. (For details on these predictors follows the links in this blog post.) The two RSMP Predictors are also showing promising early talent in predicting line betting results, each having correctly chosen in 78% of games so far.
;)
In probability prediction, the TAB Bookmaker is proving difficult to beat once again, but what's pleasing there is that the Risk-Equalising approach to deriving Bookmaker probabilities from market prices is proving very-slightly superior to our previous, Overround-Equalising approach. (Details on the distinction are also available in the blog post I linked to earlier.)
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