MAFL 2012 : Team Dashboard for Round 16

The latest Team Dashboard follows.

This week, let's identify for each team the MAFL Dashboard statistics that are most at odds with the team's ladder position:

• Adelaide - 2nd on the ladder but no higher than 3rd on any on the MAFL Dashboard metrics
• Brisbane Lions - 13th on the ladder but 4th on Scoring Shot Conversion and 5th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (but 12th and 13th on Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Production)
• Carlton - 12th on the ladder but 8th in final terms with a 60% winning rate and a 140 Percentage
• Collingwood - 3rd on the ladder but 1st on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 1st in 1st Quarters with an 80% winning rate and a 167 Percentage
• Essendon - 6th on the ladder but 12th on Own and on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 2nd on Own Scoring Shot Production
• Fremantle - 10th on the ladder but 5th on Opponent Scoring Shot Production, 4th in 3rd quarters, and 5th in final terms
• Geelong - 7th on the ladder but 12th in 1st and 3rd terms (with a sub-50% winning rate in each) and 2nd in final terms (with a 73% winning rate and a 153 Percentage)
• Gold Coast - 17th on the ladder but 3rd in Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• GWS - 18th on the ladder but 13th in Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• Hawthorn - 4th on the ladder but 1st on Own Scoring Shot Production and 10th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, as well as 1st on 2nd quarters and 9th on 3rd quarters
• Kangaroos - 9th on the ladder but 1st on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 15th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
• Melbourne - 16th on the ladder but 8th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion and 18th on final terms with a 20% winning rate and a 62 Percentage
• Port Adelaide - 15th on the ladder but 9th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 7th on 3rd quarters with a 60% winning rate and a 122 Percentage
• Richmond - 11th on the ladder, 7th on both Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Production, but 14th and 16th on Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion. Also, 3rd on 1st terms and 2nd on 3rd terms, but 18th on 2nd terms
• St Kilda - 8th on the ladder but 3rd on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 17th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion. Also, 3rd in 3rd terms and 4th in final terms, winning two-thirds of each
• Sydney - 1st on the ladder but 8th on Own Scoring Shot Production and 10th in final terms with only a 50% winning rate
• West Coast - 5th on the ladder but 10th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 8th in 3rd terms, and 1st in final terms with a 77% winning rate and a 143 Percentage
• Western Bulldogs - 14th on the ladder but 18th on Own and on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, as well as 17th on 1st terms with a 27% winning rate and a 57 Percentage. 

MAFL 2012 : Team Dashboard for Round 15

The latest Team Dashboard follows.

Based purely on Scoring Shots statistics and the Win Production Function I derived last year, five teams have won one or more games fewer than their statistics would suggest they "should" have, and three teams have won one or more games "extra".

Specifically, 

• St Kilda has won 2.7 games fewer, Hawthorn 2.1, Carlton 1.2, Gold Coast 1.1, and Richmond 1.0 games fewer
• Collingwood has won 1.4 games more, the Dogs 1.3, and Adelaide 1.1 games more

A competition ladder based on the expected wins from the Win Production Function would have the same teams in the top 8 as we have now in the competition proper, though ordered as follows (teams' actual ladder positions are in brackets after their name): Hawthorn (5th), Sydney (1st), West Coast (2nd), Essendon (6th), Adelaide (3rd), St Kilda (8th), Collingwood (4th), Geelong (7th).

MAFL 2012 : Team Dashboard for Round 14

The latest Team Dashboard is below.

This week I've calculated the Spearman Rank Correlations between team competition ladder positions and their rankings on the various measures in the middle and lower sections of the Dashboard. The results are, in order, from highest to lowest correlation: 

• Correlation between Ladder Position and Scoring Shots Per Game Differential (ie column C in the Scoring Shot Data section) : +0.89
• Correlation between Ladder Position and Q1 Performances (ie column Q1 in the Quarter-by-Quarter Performance section) : +0.85
• Correlation between Ladder Position and Q2 Performances (ie column Q2) : +0.82
• Correlation between Ladder Position and Scoring Shots Per Game For (ie column A) : +0.82
• Correlation between Ladder Position and Scoring Shots Per Game Against (ie column B) : +0.78
• Correlation between Ladder Position and Conversion Rate Differential (ie column F) : +0.61
• Correlation between Ladder Position and Q4 Performances (ie column Q4) : +0.59
• Correlation between Ladder Position and Q3 Performances (ie column Q3) : +0.46
• Correlation between Ladder Position and Conversion Rate For (ie column D) : +0.46
• Correlation between Ladder Position and Conversion Rate Against (ie column E) : +0.39

One way of summarising these results would be to say that success this season has so far been about first half performances and about generating more scoring shots for your own team than you allow your opponents to generate. In driving up that scoring shot differential, success has been marginally more associated with generating more shots oneself than with denying opponents their scoring shots.

MAFL 2012 : Team Dashboard for Round 13

Right now, the teams that rank 1st to 4th in terms of points conceded per game also fill the first four places on the competition ladder, while those that rank 1st to 4th in terms of points scored per game currently lie 6th, 8th, 11th and 4th respectively. It seems then as though success in the competition is more related to defence than it is to offence.

Sydney, Essendon and West Coast's defensive superiority has come from denying opposing teams' opportunities to score: they have the three best records in terms of scoring shots conceded per game of all teams in the competition.

Collingwood, however, has not denied teams scoring shots - it has only the 12th best performance in the league on this measure - but has presented them with opportunities that have been relatively hard to convert. Collingwood's opponents have converted only 46.7% of their scoring opportunities, a rate fully 2 percentage points lower than for any other team in the competition.

Fremantle and St Kilda are two other teams that - like Sydney, Essendon and West Coast - have been relatively good at denying their opponents scoring opportunities. That's why they occupy positions 4 and 6 in terms of scoring shots conceded per game. What's hurt them though is that their opponents have been able or allowed to convert those opportunities at relatively high rates: about 55% of the scoring opportunities they've presented to opponents have been converted into goals. 

MAFL 2012 : Team Dashboard for Round 12

The latest Team Dashboard follows.

This week I'll draw your attention to the columns at the right of the Scoring Shot Data section where I use the Win Production Function that I created last year, which allows me to estimate what a team's winning percentage in a season should be based solely on its offensive and defensive goal and behind scoring statistics during that season.

If we compare the ranking that we obtain from each team's expected winning percentage with current ladder positions we find a difference of two places or more for ten teams:

• Adelaide and Fremantle are 4 places higher on the competition ladder than their scoring statistics suggest
• Collingwood, Geelong and West Coast are 2 places higher
• Hawthorn is 5 places lower (they've won only two-thirds of their games but their scoring statistics suggest they should have an 80% winning rate)
• Carlton, Gold Coast, St Kilda and Sydney are 2 places lower