;)
Saturday, February 16, 2013 at 5:25PM At university, studying undergraduate Economics - which, granted, was a while ago - I particularly disliked theories premised on simplifying assumptions, which were introduced with an implicit promise, rarely honoured, to relax these assumptions later and nudge the theory a little closer to observed reality.
overround Thursday, February 14, 2013 at 9:26PM Lately it seems I've been specialising in blogs on topics that I've covered before, and tonight's blog is no exception. It's on estimating the probability of a draw.
Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 10:17PM In the previous blog I investigated a number of additional approaches to determining the Bookmaker's Implicit Probability - and, by mathematical implication, his embedded overround - for each team based on observed head-to-head market prices.
Wednesday, February 6, 2013 at 9:36PM Lately I've been pondering the challenge of determining how much overround the TAB Bookmaker has embedded in the head-to-head prices of each team in an AFL contest.
Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 11:44AM Having a new - and, it seems, generally superior - way to calculate Bookmaker Implicit Probabilities is like having a new toy to play with. Most recently I've been using it to create a family of simple Margin Predictors, each optimised in a different way.
