Final Ladder Positions: Simulations After Round 20

As I type this late on Sunday evening all ladder-related markets are suspended on TAB Sportsbet, so I'll necessarily be excluding any discussion of value bets in these markets. I'll post subsequently on this once the markets are up.

In the meantime, here's what my simulations now make of each team's chances.

Minor Premiership Market

As conclusions go, this one's now about as foregone as you can get.

Simulations suggest that the Pies' chances for the minor premiership are now greater than 98%, up about 0.7% on last week, making their fair-value price $1.02.

The Cats remain the only other team with any hope of the minor premiership, and their fair- value price is now over $63.

Top 4 Market

Geelong and St Kilda joined Collingwood this week as the teams with assured Top 4 spots, leaving the Bulldogs and Freo to duel for the remaining spot.

In reality though Fremantle having only the slightest chance to grab 4th since to do so, given their inferior percentage, they'd probably need to beat both Hawthorn and Carlton, and hope the Dogs lost to Sydney and Essendon. This scenario has a probability of less than 1% according to the simulations.

Fair-value prices for the Dogs and Fremantle are $1.01 and $117 respectively.

Finals Market

Carlton and Sydney this week cemented their finals berths and Hawthorn just about did the same. The Hawks are now 92% chances, making their fair-value price $1.09.

The Roos' loss to the Saints lopped over 20% from their finals chances, leaving them with a probability of just under 6% of playing in 3 weeks time. Melbourne also ran a scythe through their finals aspirations in going down to the Hawks and now sport only a 2% chance of playing in September.

Fair-value for the Roos in this market is now $17.30 and for the Dees it's $51.20.

The Spoon Market

As the Pies have one hand on the minor premiership, so the Eagles have a mortgage on the Spoon. They're now 99% chances to take home the cutlery.

Both the Lions and Richmond have mathematical chances to grab the Spoon for themselves, but those chances both start with a zero before the decimal point.

Fair-value for the Eagles is $1.01, for Richmond it's $150, and for the Lions it's $603.

Here are the full results of the new simulations.

With just two rounds to go, the range of possible ladder finishes for each team has narrowed dramatically, as you can see from the table below.

Most teams now have realistic chances of finishing in one of two or three spots. Only Carlton, Melbourne and Port Adelaide have four different potential finishes each with a probability of around 10% or more.

(Update @ 2pm on Monday:

Only one ladder-related market remains available on TAB Sportsbet, the Finals market, and it has Hawthorn at $1.02, the Roos at $11, and Melbourne at $51. At those prices there's no value on offer.)