MAFL often employs statistical modelling techniques in an attempt to explain the historical variability in some aspect of football. In some cases, these models are also used in attempting to predict future outcomes (with, unsurprisingly, varying levels of success).

 

• Relationship Between Points Start & Price of Favourite
  • Initial Blog constructed on 2006-2008 data
  • Later Blog constructed on 2006-2009 data plus most of 2010 data
• Adjusting for the Imbalance in the Draw (Liam Lenten Approach)
• Probability That the Favourite Covers the Spread Given a Particular Lead at Quarter End (2006-2008)
• Are Footy HAMs Normal? (2006-2008)
• Randomly Generating Game Results Based on Head-to-Head Prices
• Predicting Home Team Victory Margin Using MARS Ratings and TAB Sportsbet Prices
  • Using 2006-2009 data
  • Using data from R13 of 1999 to end of 2009
  • The "Super Smart Model"
  • Using data from 1999 to (most of) 2010
  • Using data from 2006 to 2010 and incorporating splines
• Predicting Home Team Victory Margin Using MARS Ratings, Venue Experience and Interstate Status (2000-2010 Competition Amongst Different Algorithms)
• Probability of Victory Given MARS Rating Difference and Venue
• The HAMP, LAMP and HELP Models
• Modelling Team Scoring (2006 to 2009)
  • See also this and this blog
• In-Running Prediction of the Winner of an AFL Game (2000-2009)
  • See also this subsequent blog
• Bookie Team Probability and MARS Ratings as a Function of a Team's Recent Results (2000-2009)
• Modelling Bookie Probabilities (1999 R13 - 2010 R12)
• Simplifying MARS Calculations
• Predicting Extreme Outcomes 
• Evidence for the Favourite-Longshot Bias in TAB Sportsbet Prices (2006-2010)
• Proposition Bets on the Divisibility by N of the Margin at the end of the First Quarter
• Grand Final Margins and MARS Ratings (1999-2009)
• Grand Final Results and Ladder Position (1897-2009)
• Grand Final Typology (1897-2008)
• Home-and-Away Season Game Typology (1897-2010)
• Success Rate of Home vs Away Teams on Line Betting (2006-2010)
• The Pre-Game and In-Running Probability of a Draw (1999-2010)
• In-Running Probability that Favourite Wins (2006 to 2010)
• Biases in Line Betting (2006-2010)
• In-Running Projection of Favourite's Victory Margin
• Different Model Formulations for Predicting Game Outcomes
  • Predicting Game Winner (2006-2010)
  • Predicting Game Margin (2006-2010)
• Excess Venue Experience and Probability of Victory (1999-2010)
• Predicting a Team's Winning Percentage for the Season (1897-2010)