2012 MARS, Colley, Massey and ODM Ratings After Round 9
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MARS is a Pies fan again.
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MARS is a Pies fan again.
This week the Line Fund showed promising signs of calibration, bagging 5 bets from 6 and climbing over 17c to more than offset the losses incurred by the other two Funds. Overall, thanks entirely to the Line Fund, Portfolios rose by almost 6c, taking the Portfolio price to $1.11.
The GWS v Essendon line market finally went up late this evening (Thursday) with the Giants receiving 70.5 points start, 10 points fewer than I was expecting. Unfazed, the Line Fund algorithm felt that almost 12 goals start represented value and so added the Giants to its already-committed bevy of 5 wagers, making it 6 wagers in total, or 30% of its initial wealth, half on favourites and half on underdogs.
I've locked in all the bets for Round 9 except one: a line bet on GWS. Assuming that they receive around the 80.5 points start I expect them to we'll be on them, but until they do and we are a full blog post will need to wait.
For now I'll just reveal that we've already placed 2 head-to-head wagers, 5 line bets and 4 SuperMargin wagers - including one particularly intriguing bet - covering 7 of the 9 games.
More soon ...
We're not short of a Rating System here on MAFL, but none of the three that we have separately rates the offensive and defensive abilities of each team. That's what's different about the Offense-Defense Model (ODM), which I'll be reviewing and applying to AFL in this blog.