2013 : MARS, Massey, Colley and ODM Ratings After Round 13

Now that all teams have had 12 opportunities to impress the judges, it's time for me to take a look at team Ratings.

Firstly, here's what MARS thinks:

Amongst the eight highest-ranked teams on MARS Ratings, all come from the top nine places on the competition ladder. The major differences between MARS Rankings and the competition ladder - where the difference in ranking is 4 places or more - are for Essendon who are ranked 8th by MARS but who sit 4th on the ladder, and for Port Adelaide who are ranked 13th by MARS but who sit 8th on the ladder. MARS hasn't yet forgotten about those 5 straight losses for Port.

Over the recent period during which each team in the competition has played 5 games, the teams that occupy the top 7 spots on the MARS ladder have all gained between about 3 and 10 Rating Points (RPs). Only two lower-Ranked teams have also, in net terms, gained RPs: Port Adelaide, who sit 13th but who have gained 1.8 RPs; and Gold Coast, who sit 15th but who have gained 0.6 RPs.

Over that same period, four teams have shed more than 5 RPs: Adelaide, who've shed 6.5 RPs; St Kilda, who've shed almost 10 RPs; Melbourne, who've shed almost 13 RPs; and GWS who've shed almost 14 RPs.

MARS' opinions about the relative merits of the 18 teams are still broadly consistent with the opinions of the three other Rating Systems, as shown in the following chart.

Against that baseline of broad agreement, MARS has a slightly lesser opinion than the other Systems about Essendon's credentials, and a slightly higher opinion about St Kilda's, while Colley is marginally more enamoured with Port Adelaide's and less enamoured with Sydney's.

ODM's opinion is, as always, more nuanced than that of its MAFL companions, and can be deconstructed in terms of its opinions about the offensive and defensive capabilities of each team. Fremantle and Port Adelaide continue to be teams that it assesses as being propped up by their respective defensive capabilities (or let down by their offensive capabilities - you decide), while Geelong, the Roos and West Coast are teams that it assesses as suffering from the opposite affliction.

Nuanced or not, MARS remains the best Rating System for picking winners, while Massey remains second-best and ODM third. Colley languishes in last place, as it has done for most of the season, headed by predictions based solely on either of the two components of the ODM Rating System.

Lastly, here's a view of the full-season MARS Ratings: