2012 MARS Ratings After Finals Week 1

Eight teams were in action in Week 1 of the Finals, and eight teams changed positions based on MARS Ratings, including the Saints and the Blues who didn't even set foot on the park but nonetheless climbed one spot each thanks to losses for the teams that were immediately above them. 

Hawthorn now find themselves 19 Ratings Points (RPs) clear of Sydney who, in turn, find themselves over 10 RPs clear of the next remaining finalist, the Eagles. Next come the Pies a further 4 RPs back, then (skipping the non-finalist Saints) the Crows almost another 4 RPs adrift and, lastly, Freo, yet another 4 RPs behind. All told, the RP gap between the highest-ranked and lowest-ranked teams now stands at a cavernous 43 RPs. Small wonder then that a Hawthorn v Sydney Grand Final is now priced at better than even money.

(Note that I'm no longer using the Colley, Massey or ODM Systems to rate or rank the teams as the scripts I've written for those Systems are based on there being, at most, a single pair of home-and-away fixtures for any pair of teams.)

Comments

[Greg]

If I've sorted correctly, this puts the Hawks in VERY elite company behind only 3 teams since 2000 - Essendon in 2000, Geelong in 2008 and Collingwood in 2011. All 3 teams were minor premiers, but only Essendon went on to win the flag.

[TonyC]

Yep that's right when we look at teams' end of the home-and-away season Ratings.

Even if we expand our view and also consider Ratings through the Finals we add only two more teams: Geelong 2011, who finished the full season Rated 1,061.2, and Lions 2002, who peaked at 1,057.7 before losing in the Grand Final.