2012 Round 17 Results : A Welcome Regression

It was, of course, unlikely if not impossible that this week's wagering would prove to be as disastrous as last week's, but even in my most optimistic assessment I didn't expect to snatch back almost 9c of the value that was so painfully wrenched away in the previous round.

But that is indeed what transpired, as the Head-to-Head Fund landed 1 of 2 wagers to elevate its price by half a cent, the Line Fund bagged 4 of 5 wagers to leap 13c, and the Margin Fund snagged 1 of 3 wagers to grow by 10c. That still leaves Overall Portfolios down by 10.6c on the season. Nonetheless, thank Galton for regression to the mean; profitability for the season once again feels like a reasonable aspiration.

The Head-to-Head Tipsters revelled in the week's return to predictability, with victory by eight of the nine favourites heralding a 7.4 from 9 all-Tipster average. None picked all nine victors though many picked eight, the round's worst performance attributable to Home Sweet Home, which managed only 4.

H2H_Unadj_10 was one of the Tipsters bagging 8 from 9, which leaves it atop the Leaderboard and now on 112 from 144 (77.8%), still just one tip ahead of a persistent, baying bunch of a dozen pursuing Tipsters. We should pause for a moment to reflect on just how predictable this season has been: a computer algorithm, unencumbered and unenlightened by footballing knowledge except for that which is conveyed to it via input data, is currently picking, on average, in excess of 7 correct tips from 9 each week.

Margin Predictors also fared well across the weekend after a rocky start with generally unexpected - and universally unexpectedly large - wins by the Cats and the Hawks in the first two games of the round. In the end the all-Predictor average MAPE of 25.68 points per game was the lowest since Round 12, led by ProPred_3's 23.21 points per game average. The round's worst result was that of Combo_NN2, which was still a creditable 28.14 poins per game. These results left Combo_7 at the head of the Leaderboard, but now by only 0.02 points per game, with Bookie_3 remaining in second. Third place is still occupied by Bookie_9, now 0.12 points per game adrift.

Once again this week the Margin Predictors' accuracy was sufficient to drive better-than-chance line betting performance, the all-Predictor average coming in at 5.6 from 9 and ensuring that all Predictors bar Combo_NN2 have a season-long record that's better than 50% (Combo_NN2 is exactly at 50%).

The Predictors' SuperMargin results were also strong this week with a number of Predictors selecting the correct bucket in 3 of the 9 encounters and even Combo_NN2, despite its relatively poor MAPE and Line betting performance, selecting the correct bucket in one contest and finishing within one bucket in four more.

Still though, only five Predictors have made predictions that could have yielded profit on SuperMargin wagering had they been followed in every contest this season.

With favourites winning all but one contest and with the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors generally siding with the favourites, it was also a week of strong probability scoring by these Predictors. Best was ProPred, which managed to drag itself into 4th position on the strength of its performance, but the TAB Bookmaker still leads all Predictors, and retains a healthy lead.

The Line Fund algorithm had a relatively poor round, mainly as a result of its mis-assessment of the chances of Melbourne, West Coast and St Kilda.