;)
Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 10:41PM The Normal Distribution often turns up, like the Spanish Inquisition, in places where you've no a priori reason to expect it. For example, I've shown before that bookmaker handicap-adjusted margins appear to be distributed Normally.
Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 8:28PM The topic of momentum is one I've explored before: in terms of game-to-game results for different teams, from the perspective of quarter-to-quarter outcomes, and even by examining scoring shot to scoring shot progressions within a game.
Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 11:32PM In a recent blog post I described how the results of games in 2013 have been more predictable than game results from previous seasons in the sense that the final victory margins have been, on average, closer to what you'd have expected them to be based on a reasonably constructed predictive model. In short, teams have this year won by margins closer to what an informed observer, like a Bookmaker, would have expected.
Tuesday, July 16, 2013 at 7:41PM Friend of MAFL, Michael, e-mailed me earlier to ask about my claim that 2013 was on track to be the most predictable MAFL season ever, pointing out, quite correctly, that bookmaker favourites have been winning at about the same rate - perhaps even at a slightly higher rate - as they had been at the same time last year.
Saturday, July 13, 2013 at 9:25PM Each week over on the Wagers & Tips blog, and occasionally here in the Statistical Analysis blog I use probability score as a measure of a probability predictor's performance.
