;)
Tuesday, February 22, 2011 at 10:15PM Another brief post tonight, this one on the probability of making a profit on line betting depending on the accuracy of the underlying model used to select the team on which to wager, and on the price obtained for each line bet.
Monday, February 21, 2011 at 10:55PM Just a quick post tonight in response to an interesting query from an Investor about the 'risk of ruin' of the Head-to-Head Fund. In other words, how likely is it that the Head-to-Head Fund will lose all of the money invested in it before the season's out.
Sunday, February 13, 2011 at 8:09PM I should probably have noticed this sooner, but last year was quite a profitable year for blindly wagering on Home Teams. A gambler who level-staked the AFL Designated Home Team in every game in the head-to-head and in the line market would have recorded an 8.4% ROI on his or her head-to-head wagers and a 4.1% ROI on his or her line wagers.
Friday, February 4, 2011 at 4:55PM Over on the MAFL Wagers & Tips blog I've been introducing the updated versions of the Heuristics, in this post and in this post. I've shown there that these heuristics are, individually, at least moderately adept at predicting historical AFL outcomes. All told, there are eleven heuristics, comfortably enough to form an ensemble, so in the spirit of the previous entry in MAFL Statistical Analyses, the question must be asked: can I find a subset of the heuristics which, collectively, using a majority voting scheme, tips better than any one of them alone?
Friday, January 21, 2011 at 11:24PM I've been following the development of prediction markets with considerable interest over the past few years. These are markets in which the opinions of many engaged experts are combined, the notion being that their combined opinion will be a better predictor of a future outcome than the opinion of any one of them. It's a notion that has proved right on many occasions.
