;)
Saturday, August 20, 2011 at 10:35PM To what extent can the head-to-head prices set by the TAB Sportsbet Bookmaker in 2011 be modelled using only the competing teams' MAFL MARS Ratings, their respective Venue Experiences, and the Interstate Status of the fixture?
Thursday, August 18, 2011 at 8:44PM I was curious - and that's rarely a portent of lazy evenings - as to which of the three ratings systems we've been tracking since Round 14 is best, so I set about finding out.
Saturday, August 13, 2011 at 11:16PM We first discussed surprisals back in 2009 (if you perform a site search using the term "surprisals" you'll be linked to a couple of PDFs as well as to a handful of blog posts on the topic) as a method for quantifying the surprise associated with the outcome of a football game.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:31PM With fewer than half-a-dozen home-and-away rounds to be played, it's time I was posting to the Simulations blog, but this year I wanted to see if I could find a better algorithm than OLS for predicting the margins of victory for each of the remaining games.
Thursday, July 28, 2011 at 9:43PM In a couple of earlier blogs I created binary logit models to predict the probability that the favourite would win given a specified lead at a quarter break and the bookmaker's assessed pre-game probability for the favourite. These models allow you to determine what a fair in-running price would be for the favourite. You might instead want to know what the favourite's projected victory margin is given the same input data, so in this blog I'll be providing some simple linear regressions that provide this information.
