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Bookmaker Overround: A General Framework

Previously I've developed the notion of taking a Bookmaker's prices in the head-to-head market and using them to infer his opinion about the true victory probabilities of the competing teams by adopting an Overround-Equalising or a Risk-Equalising approach. In this blog I'll be summarising and generalising these approaches.

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Grand Final History: How Often Does The Better Team Win?

The VFL competition had no Grand Final in its first season, so it wasn't until 1898 that Essendon were able to establish a most unwelcome first: the inaugural losing favourite

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Team Ratings, Bookmaker Prices and the Recent Predictability of Finals 

Last weekend saw three of four underdogs prevail in the first week of the Finals. Based on the data I have, you'd need to go back to 2006 to find a more surprising Week 1 of the Finals and, as highlighted in the previous blog, no matter how far you went back you wouldn't find a bigger upset than Port Adelaide's defeat of the Pies.

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Upsets and Mismatches in VFL/AFL Finals: 1897 to 2013

Port Adelaide's victory over Collingwood last weekend was, I discovered last night, the greatest upset in a Final in VFL/AFL history.

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Prime Motivation: An Analysis of Prime Numbers in AFL Scoring

Earlier this week, the TED talk of Australian radio broadcaster, comedian and self-confessed number geek Adam Spencer was posted online. In it he explains his fascination with prime numbers, in particular the discovery of "monster primes", which got me to wondering about the prevalence of prime numbers amongst football scores.

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