Looking At Team Performance Quarter-By-Quarter

AFL Football - as the cliche goes - is a game of four quarters. The benefit of this arrangement is that AFL scores provide twice as much information about the ebb and flow of each contest as the scores of any other form of football in this country.

With the quarter-by-quarter information alone we can perform some interesting analyses for every team.

Below, for example, is a summary of Adelaide's season so far, adopting a quarter-by-quarter view of each game. The chart on the left has one line for each game Adelaide has played and tracks the lead or deficit that they had at the end of every quarter in that game. So, for example, the purple line tracks the trajectory of the scores in Adelaide's game against Richmond where you can see that Adelaide trailed, narrowly, at quarter time, still trailed at half time, took a narrow lead into the third change, and then went on to win handsomely.

The table on the right provides match summaries based on the situation at the end of each team. So, for example, in the 4 games where Adelaide led or was tied at quarter time they went on to win only 1 of them. In the 6 games where they trailed at the first change they went on to win only one of them also. The coast-to-coast data tells us that Adelaide have led at every change in only one game and have trailed at every change in 4 games.

Some features of note in Adelaide's performances: 

• They've recorded relatively few come-from-behind wins and none where they've come back from a deficit at the final change.
• They've won only 1 time from 4 after leading or being tied at the first change.

 

Some features of note in Brisbane's performances: 

• They've not lost a game after they've led at a change.
• All their losses have been coast-to-coast losses.
• They've come from behind 3 times from 8 when they've trailed at half time and 3 times from 8 when they've trailed at the last change.

Some features of note in Carlton's performances:

• They're the ultimate momentum team. In 90% of games their situation at quarter time has been their situation at full time; in 90% of games their situation at half time has been their situation at full time; and in 80% of games their situation at three-quarter time has been their situation at full time
• If they lead early they tend to extend their lead throughout the game, but if they trail early they tend to fall further behind as the game progresses. 

Some features of note in Collingwood's performances: 

• They're also, as are Carlton, a momentum team. In 80% of games their situation at quarter time has been their situation at full time; in 80% of games their situation at half time has been their situation at full time; and in 90% of games their situation at three-quarter time has been their situation at full time.
• So too if they lead early do they tend to extend their lead throughout the game, and if they trail early they tend to fall further behind as the game progresses.
• They've not come from behind to win after trailing at half time or three-quarter time.

Some features of note in Essendon's performances: 

• They're another momentum team, though a little less so that Carlton or Collingwood.
• They've not come from behind to win after trailing at half time or three-quarter time. 

Some features of note in Fremantle's performances: 

• They've tended to go on and win when they've led (though only half of their victories have been coast-to-coast).
• They've also been good at coming from behind when they've trailed, but less so when they've trailed at the last change. 

Some features of note in Geelong's performances: 

• They're another momentum team with, like Collingwood and Carlton, 7 coast-to-coast results.
• They've come from behind 2 times out of 3 when trailing at the final change. 

Some features of note in Hawthorn's performances: 

• They've not come from behind to win after trailing at half time or three-quarter time, and only once come from behind to win after trailing at quarter-time .
• They've only a 50% percent record after leading or being tied at the first change.

Some features of note in the Kangaroo's performances: 

• They're yet another momentum team - 80% of their game have been coast-to-coast affairs.
• They've not come from behind to win after trailing at half time or three-quarter time, and only once come from behind to win after trailing at quarter-time. 

 Some features of note in Melbourne's performances: 

• They're another momentum team with a high proportion of coast-to-coast results and only a handful of come from behind victories.

 

Some features of note in Port Adelaide's performances: 

• They've secured a number of come from behind victories, for example winning 50% of the games where they've trailed at the last change.
• Nonetheless, 4 of their 5 losses have been coast-to-coast.
• They've managed to win 5 games despite leading at the final change only twice, and losing even one of those games.

 

Some features of note in Richmond's performances: 

• They've not come from behind in any game.
• They've lost 3 times from 4 when they've led or been tied at the first change, and lost 2 times from 3 when they've led or been tied at half time.

Some features of note in St Kilda's performances: 

• They have relatively very few coast-to-coast results
• They've come back to win 3 times out of 4 when they've trailed at quarter-time, and 3 times out of 5 when they've trailed at half-time.

Some features of note in Sydney's performances: 

• They're even more of a momentum team than the Blues. For 90% of games the result has matched the quarter-time situation and the same can be said for the half-time situation. As well, they've not won a game where they've trailed at three-quarter time nor lost a game where they've led at three-quarter time.
• All but one of their games has produced a coast-to-coast outcome.

Some features of note in West Coast's performances: 

• Only three of their games have had a coast-to-coast cadence.
• They've lost half the time when they've led or been tied at quarter-time, lost half the time when they've led or been tied at half-time, and been unable to hold on to a three-quarter time lead 60% of the time.

 

 Some features of note in the Western Bulldogs' performances: 

• Two-thirds of their wins have been coast-to-coast but only one-third of their losses.
• They've not come from behind to win after trailing at half time or three-quarter time.