2012 - Simulations After Round 22

A change of emphasis with the simulations this week as we ignore the bottom "half" of the competition ladder and, instead, look only at the likely composition of the final 8.

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2012 - Simulations After Round 21

Compared to the simulations at the end of Round 20, the latest simulations see: 

• Adelaide's minor premiership chances plummet from 49% to under 5%. It's conceivable now, though barely, that they could finish at low as 6th.
• Carlton's chances of making the finals rise from 13% to 35%
• Collingwood's Top 4 chances drop from 94% to 80%, and its minor premiership chances virtually extinguished after having been assessed at about 11% last week
• Essendon's chances of playing finals football dive from 26% to just over 1%
• Fremantle's chances of competing in the finals rising from 43% to 62%
• Geelong's Top 8 chances rise from 95% to 99%
• The Gold Coast virtually handing the Wooden Spoon to GWS, the Suns' Spoon chances now rated at only just over 1%
• GWS preparing its Spoon Acceptance speech
• Hawthorn lifting its minor premiership chances from 16% to 49%. (Curiously, the Hawks are now more likely to finish 1st, 3rd or 4th than they are to finish 2nd.)
• The Roos' Top 4 chances inch up from about 1% to just under 4%, and their chances of a Top 8 spot reach 100%
• Richmond's Top 8 chances disappear (they were assessed at just over 2% last week)
• St Kilda's Top 8 chances drop from 26% to under 3%
• Sydney's minor premiership chances climb from 24% to 47%
• West Coast's Top 4 chances rise from about 7% to 19% and their Top 8 chances reach 100%

To help you assess the validity of these latest simulations for yourself, here are the simulated probabilities for the results of each of the remaining 18 games in the home-and-away season, upon which the simulated ladder positions discussed above are based.

Turning to the TAB AFL Futures Markets and using the results of these latest simulations, only two wagers offer an edge of at least 5%: 

- Hawthorn for the minor premiership at $2.20 (estimated 7% edge)

- The Roos for a Top 4 finish at $34 (estimated 29% edge)

2012 - Simulated Wagers

If MAFL has no other redeeming features at least it forces me to make public the wagering actions I believe are suggested by the statistical models I've constructed. In that spirit, I thought it was time to take the results of the end-of-season simulations that I've run over the past two weeks and use them to commit to explicit actions in the TAB AFL Futures Markets.

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2012 - Simulations After Round 20

Here are the results of the new simulations, run using the updated competition ladder and the new MARS Ratings.

(The new results are in grey on the left, while those from last week are provided for comparative purposes and appear in green on the right.)

On a team-by-team basis the major changes are: 

• Adelaide: now the favorites for the minor premiership, finishing top in almost 50% of simulations
• Brisbane Lions: virtual certainties to finish somewhere within ladder positions 13 to 17
• Carlton: increased their chances of making the 8 from about 7% to almost 13%
• Collingwood: more than doubled their chances of winning the minor premiership from about 5% to 11%, and also boosted their chances of finishing in the Top 4 from 76% to 94%
• Essendon: almost halved their chances of making the 8 from 47% to 26%
• Fremantle: decreased their chances of making the 8 from 59% to 43%
• Geelong: virtually eliminated their chances of a Top 4 finish, but left their finals chances only very slightly undiminished
• Gold Coast: almost halved their Spoon chances from 26% to 15%
• GWS: increased their Spoon chances from 74% to 85%
• Hawthorn: saw their chances of finishing as minor premiers drop from 19% to 16%, but their chances of a Top 4 finish rise from 98% to 99%
• Kangaroos: saw their chances of finishing in the Top 4 approximately halve from 2% to about 1%, but their chances of a Top 8 finish rise from 76% to 96%
• Melbourne: did nothing to alter the inevitability of a finish somewhere from 13th to 17th 
• Port Adelaide: also did nothing to alter the inevitability of a finish somewhere from 13th to 17th
• Richmond: blew gently on their flickering chances of a Top 8 finish, nudging it from under 1% to just over 2%
• St Kilda: lifted their finals chances from 21% to 26%
• Sydney: more then halved their chances of taking out the minor premiership from 54% to 24%, and opened the probabilistic door, albeit only a hair's width, for a finish outside the Top 4
• West Coast: saw their chances of a Top 4 finish slip from 10% to under 7%, but their chances of a spot in the finals rise from 93% to 99%
• Western Bulldogs: did nothing to alter the inevitability of a finish somewhere from 13th to 17th

Marrying these new simulation results to the current TAB AFL Futures Markets we find value in: 

• Hawthorn at $7 for the minor premiership (12% edge)
• Carlton at $9 (13% edge) and Richmond at $51 (12% edge) for spots in the 8
• Fremantle at $1.90 (8% edge) and St Kilda at $1.45 (8% edge) to miss the 8

The value we spotted last week in the prices for Geelong to make the 8, Collingwood and Geelong to make the Top 4, and in GWS to win the Spoon has now disappeared, leaving a wager on St Kilda to miss the 8 as the only identified "value bet" that still carries that label.

2012 - Reimagining the First 19 Rounds

A footy season, once witnessed, is hard to imagine having turned out any other way.

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