2011 - Simulating the Finals - Part III

Here, based on the new MARS Ratings are the updated team-versus-team probabilities that I'll be using in this week's simulations:

Collingwood are still predicted to defeat all-comers, though the likelihood that they'll defeat the Cats has reduced somewhat now that the Ratings Point gap between these two teams has been cut to 7.

Carlton's chances of defeating every other remaining team have risen this week, since it grabbed more Ratings Points than any other during Week 1 of the Finals. Sydney fared next best and so has seen its prospects improve when playing any other team but the Blues. Hawthorn and West Coast, both of which dropped Ratings Points this week, have seen their chances generally decline against the other remaining finalists, although the Hawks still remain favourites over the Eagles, Blues and Swans.

The results of the new simulations appear below, again with the newest data on the left and the outputs from last week's simulations on the right.

Based on these simulations, the Pies chances of winning the flag have barely moved as a result of their win this week and remain at just over 50%. Geelong, however, boosted its chances by just over 5% points, the same amount by which it caused the Hawks' chances to fall.

Carlton's and Sydney's chances rose by just a little, while the Eagle's chances, already slim, all but vanished on Saturday according to the simulation results.

(One additional, interesting element of the simulations is that while the Pies' Flag chances are virtually unchanged, they are now rated more likely to make the Grand Final (up from about 74% to 82%) but more likely to lose it if they do (up from about 30% to 36%)).

Based on these simulated team Premiership probabilities, only the Cats offer any value on the TAB and, at $2.75, it's very little value at that.

In the lower portion of the simulation results I've provided the simulation-based probabilities for each of the remaining possible GF matchups. A Collingwood v Geelong Granny has now firmed to be about a 2/1 on prospect, while the matchups of Geelong v Hawthorn and Collingwood v Carlton Grand Finals are both rated about 7/1 shots and on the second line of betting.

At present the GF quinella market is suspended on the TAB, so I can't say which if any of these pairings offer value.