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Entries in probability (2)


Who Are The Champions?

Having spent now over seven years applying statistical methods to the analysis and prediction of games of Australian Rules football I've become entirely comfortable - if I was feeling uncharitable I might even say blasé - about treating the outcome of these games as random variables with definable statistical characteristics.

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Cherishing Inconsistency Where It's Welcome

In an earlier blog we demonstrated the benefits of consistency in football - moderate benefits if the consistency came in the form of generating scoring shots with less variability than teams of otherwise similar ability, and significant benefits if it came in the form of converting more of those opportunities into goals.

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