Swans Turn Into Ugly Ducklings

Two of the three teams did what Investors asked of them this weekend, but Sydney's failure to be amongst this group meant another small loss for most this weekend. This leaves the Recommended Portfolio down about 1% on the season and all other Investors up by amounts ranging from 0.9% (MIN #015) to 24.6% (MIN #002).

At this point in the season New Heritage is up about 11%, Prudence is up about 3.5%, Hope is up almost 25%, Chi-squared is down about 17.5%, and the Line Redux Fund is down about 21%.

On tipping, Silhouette and Shadow continue to perform well and jointly lead our tipping competition, two tips clear of BKB and four tips clear of STM II, who've leaped into fourth thanks to an 8 from 8 performance this round. Over the past 3 rounds STM II has scored 21 from 24.

On level-stake, home-team-only wagering, commencing in Round 6, we still have five tipsters showing a profit: Shadow, Silhouette, BKB, STM II and EI II. Three of these tipsters - Silhouette, Shadow and STM II - are also showing a profit on season-long wagering.

ELO performed well again this round on line betting, picking up 6 from 8 to go to 54 and 42 for the season, which is good enough for a 5.67 unit profit on level-stake wagering across the season. Chi managed just 4 from 8 and is now 42 and 54 for the season.

A Trio to Finish

Round 12 continues this weekend, with just three games to complete the formalities.

The New Heritage Fund has two wagers across the weekend totalling around 19% of the Fund. By a considerable margin the larger wager is at $1.25 on the Dons, a team with which New Heritage has had a barely profitable season. The other wager at a generous $1.90 on Sydney, a team which has been responsible for a 12c gain in the New Heritage Fund price (and for a 5c gain in the Prudence Fund).

Prudence has two wagers too, and they're also on the Dons and the Swans. Together, they total about 6% of the Fund.

Line Redux has just one wager, on Freo with 45.5 points start playing the Cats, though there might be another wager on Sydney when their line market opens for betting. This is the Line Redux Fund's first wager on Fremantle this season.

Chi-squared and Hope complete a quiet round for them both, with neither of them venturing a wager this weekend. Between them, they've mustered on a single bet across the entire round. Earlier in the week Chi-squared was contemplating a wager on the Swans, but it went off this idea when the Pies shortened to equal favouritism. The Chi-squared Fund is very sensitive to price movements around the $1.85-$1.95 range.

Here's this week's Ready Reckoner (which I'll update if the Sydney line bet eventuates, so please have another look before the weekend).

(Thursday night update: no line bet on Sydney. Even though they're receiving 6.5 points start - and I expected them to be giving it - they're only at $1.75. There's no value in that.)

So it's the Essendon v Melbourne game that has the greatest potential impact on all Investors except for the once-again wagerless MIN#002.

To tipping:

• The Dons are unanimous favourites over the Dees.
• The Pies are 11-2 favourites over Sydney, though one of the Swans' supporters is ELO. Both Chi and ELO have this as their Game of the Half Round. (Note that, since Sydney and Collingwood are equal favourites, BKB goes with CTL and so is on the Pies.)
• Geelong are 12-1 favourites over Freo. Only HSH is opting for the home team.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are Melbourne, Sydney and Freo
• ELO's line bets Essendon, Sydney and Freo.

Split Round, Spilt Money

To (mis)use a footballing term: it was a weekend of two halves.

Saturday was wonderful, with the Dogs and the Tigers doing what we'd asked. Sunday was, in equal measure, appalling, due largely to the Hawks' failure to show up for the second half, but capped off by the Roos' inferior aquatic skills against the Crows at Football Baths.

All told, every Investor with a wager in the round so far - which excludes only MIN#002 - has lost money, in amounts ranging from 2.5% to 10.2%. So, at this point, 5 games into the split 12th round, the Recommended Portfolio is under water by about 0.8%. Other portfolios remain profitable, but MIN#001 and MIN#002 are now just a loss or two away from red ink.

On tipping, Silhouette and Shadow are joint leaders on 66, BKB is third on 64, and STM II, with 5 from 5 for the weekend, has moved into fourth on 62.

There's still 3 more games to turn this Round around ...

Five Games; Money on Four

Round 12 in the AFL is a split round this year, so our tipsters and our Funds need only make decisions about 5 contests this week. Only Prudence and New Heritage have expressed any significant enthusiasm for what's on offer; amongst them, the other three Funds have just two wagers.

Prudence, this week's most active Fund, has four wagers totalling around 13.5% of the Fund and spanning teams with prices ranging from $1.15 to $1.55. Its Adelaide wager is its first on them this season. 

New Heritage, the next most active Fund, has three wagers, two of them with substantial downside tied to the fate of the Dogs and the Hawks, and another with substantial upside but relying on the Roos at $5 to overcome the Crows at Footy Park. The Roos wager is New Heritage's first on this team this season.

Chi-squared, feeling a little anxious at last weekend's 14% decline, has ventured just a single wager: a smidge over 4.6% on the Tigers at $1.55. This is Chi-squared's first flutter on the Tigers this year. Excepting Hope, the other Funds have all had bad years punting on Richmond, registering just a solitary profitable bet amongst them from five attempts. Line Redux has been similarly restrained in also opting for only one wager. Its is on Hawthorn giving 15.5 points start to the Lions.

The Hope Fund, a trifle ironically, has found no team worthy of its faith this weekend and so will finish the weekend where it'll start it at +24.6%. 

Here's this week's Ready Reckoner.

For all Investors - bar MIN#002 who is without wager - the two most financially important games are the Hawks v Lions clash and the Bulldogs v Port matchup. These games represent potential swings of around 4-6% for most Investors and around 15% for MIN#017.

Moving then to tipping:

• The Saints are favoured 12-1 over the Blues. HSH is home alone on the Blues. ELO has this game as its Game of the Half Round though it is tipping more than a 2-goal margin.
• The Dogs are unanimous favourites over Port, with Chi and ELO both predicting that the Dogs will cover the 25.5 point spread.
• West Coast are 8-5 favourites over Richmond. Amongst the upper echelon of our tipsters, the Tigers have the support of BKB, ELO and STM II, while Shadow, Silhouette and CTL are siding with the Coast.
• Hawthorn are favoured 9-4 over the Lions, with Silhouette and STM II the only members of the tipping elite jumping on the Lions.
• Adelaide are unanimous favourites over the Roos. Chi has the Crows squeaking home by just 7 points, making this his Game of the Half Round.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are 3 mammals, a bird and a colour: Blues, Dogs, Eagles, Lions and Roos.
• ELO's line bets have the same mix of fauna and hue, but swap a crow for an eagle and a tiger for a roo: Blues, Dogs, Tigers, Lions and Crows.

Not Quite What I Was Planning

Okay, I admit it: making money is much more fun than losing it, no matter how tiny and glacially produced that profit is. 

This weekend, most Investors were on the wrong side of a number of narrow wagering losses. First, the Roos collapsed in the final term against the Saints to lose by 46, just a little over a goal more than the 39.5 start we were receiving on line betting. Next, the Lions couldn't quite do enough in the last quarter, despite kicking 7 goals, and wound up losing by just 6 points to the Blues. Then the Dons became only the sixth team this year to surrender a three-quarter time lead in going down to the Crows by 16 points, taking three Funds' money with them. And finally, to complete the weekend's indignities, the Hawks fell just 4.5 points short of covering the spread against the Swans.

All up, we won just 6 of 14 bets. 

The New Heritage Fund fared best, bagging 3 from 3 to give it an impressive 75% win record for the season. Prudence managed just 3 of 5, which gives it a less impressive but still profitable 67% win record for the season. Hope scored 0 from 2 and now has only a 40% win record for the season, but its winners have generally been at long odds, so it too is still in profit. 

More troubling have been the Chi-squared Fund, which recorded 0 from 2 this weekend and now has only a 45% win record, and the Line Redux Fund, which also recorded 0 from 2, leaving it with a win record similar to Chi-squared's. To date, the Line Redux Fund is, however, 2 and 5 on games where the handicap-adjusted margin was less than 2 goals, so I'm feeling a little better-disposed towards this Fund than I might otherwise be. Chi-squared's performance is just a mystery though, to be fair, none of his losses have been by more than 22 points and only one of his wins has been by such a narrow margin.

With so little success, it's not surprising that all Investors except MIN#017 - who's 100% invested in New Heritage - lost money this weekend, all in the 3-5% range. MIN#017 meantime made just over 9% on the strength on New Heritage's perfect weekend. Across the season, all Investors remain in profit, albeit narrowly.

Since we're at the halfway point in the season I thought I'd provide a new chart, this one showing how the profitability of each portfolio has varied by game across the 88 games of the season so far.

On  tipping, Shadow and STM I both tipped the card this week. This moved Shadow to 63 from 88 for the season (which is 71.5%), one clear of Silhouette and a stunning 3 clear of BKB. HSH had a horror week, scoring just 3 to leave it equal last on 49 from 88, which is still a respectable 55.7%.

On level-stake, home-team-only wagering, commencing in Round 6, five tipsters remain in profit: Shadow, Silhouette, BKB (barely), STM II and EI II. 

Finally, looking at line betting performances, ELO notched 5 from 8 this week to leave it with a +2.27 unit profit for the season. Chi managed just 3 from 8 and is losing more than it matters to count.

(Incidentally, this week's blog name is an allusion to SMITH magazine's six-word memoirs which, legend has it, were inspired by Hemingway's response to a challenge to write a story in just 6 words. His answer, "For sale: baby shoes, never worn", is hard to top, but others on the site and in the book such as "I still make coffee for two" also give pause.)