To Which Teams Do Investors Owe Thanks?

For the next in our series of season-in-review pieces, I thought we'd take a look at how each of the Funds and the Recommended Portfolio has fared wagering on each of the teams.

On the left, I've shown the performance as bar charts, each with a range of -55% to +55% (the blue line is at 0); on the right, I've shown the equivalent numbers.

Adelaide

Most Funds and the Recommended Portfolio made a small profit on Crows-wagering this season, though Chi-squared did manage to time its wagers to produce a smallish loss.

Brisbane Lions

New Heritage read the Lions' performances best of all and rose by nearly 8c on the strength of Lions-based wagering. Prudence eked out a small gain, but Hope, Chi-squared and Line Redux all made losses, which meant that the Recommended Portfolio made an overall small loss.

Carlton

Carlton were one of only two teams that brought pestilence to all who wagered upon her. Hope and Line Redux were smart enough to completely ignore the Blues, but Prudence and, especially, New Heritage and Chi-squared foundered upon the Blues' rocky form. Consequently, the Recommended Portfolio registered a loss from Blues betting - only one of three losses that it registered on teams making the final 8.

Collingwood

So far, only Prudence has failed to profit from the Pies' successful season. For New Heritage, the Pies have generated the largest return of any team, and for the Recommended Portfolio they're currently the fifth most profitable team.

Essendon

Wagering on the Dons this year has been all about timing, and Hope's really had it, Line Redux has had it a little, and the rest - Chi-squared especially - haven't had it at all. For the Recommended Portfolio, Essendon has been one of only six unprofitable teams.

Fremantle

Though they've not pleased their fans much this year, the Dockers have certainly pleased Investors. Every Fund has cranked out a profit wagering on them, Hope most of all, making Freo the third most profitable team for those with the Recommended Portfolio.

Geelong

Geelong is another team that has been bounteous for all who've had faith, which for MAFL has been every Fund except Hope. New Heritage has been particularly astute in pouncing on the Cats, generating almost 12c of incremental value from their victories.

Hawthorn

For New Heritage, Prudence and Hope, the Hawks have been a source of modest profit, but for Chi-squared and (very much) for Line Redux, the opposite has been true. In fact, Line Redux has destroyed almost one-half of its initial value on the shoals of Hawks' line results. As a consequence, the Hawks have produced the worst performance of any team for Investors with the Recommended Portfolio, destroying almost 11c worth of initial value.

Kangaroos

The Roos have generally been a team of little import as far as MAFL wagering has been concerned. New Heritage and Line Redux have squandered a little on them, but Prudence, Hope and Chi-squared have profited a little, resulting in a small gain from the Roos for the Recommended Portfolio.

Melbourne

Traditionally, MAFL Investors have revelled in those teams that have managed to produce the occasional, lucrative, at-home victory, which is exactly what the Dees have done this year. Only Hope missed out on the party, while, in contrast, Chi-squared benefited to the tune of over 27c. Overall, Melbourne generated the largest value of any team for Investors with the Recommended Portfolio, contributing almost 9c of incremental value.

Port Adelaide

Port are another team that have disappointed fans but thrilled Investors. Every Fund made money wagering on them, Chi-squared and Line Redux most of all, making them the second most profitable of all the teams for the Recommended Portfolio.

Richmond

As far as Investors are concerned the Tigers couldn't even time their wins advantageously this season. Every Fund lost money wagering on them bar the Hope Fund, which avoided loss by avoiding wagering on them. With a net loss of almost 8c, the Tigers were the second greatest value destroyers for the Recommended Portfolio of any team. Chi-squared, in particular, found them to be an unprofitable addiction.

St Kilda

Aside from a brief period late in the home-and-away season it's been hard to place losing wagers on the Saints, as every Fund but Hope has discovered. The Recommended Portfolio owes 5c worth of its gain to the performances of the Saints.

Sydney

Only Prudence and Line Redux escaped the cash vortex that was Swan-betting this season. Consequently, the Recommended Portfolio dropped over 7c thanks to the Swans, the third-highest loss amongst all the teams.

West Coast

Hope and Line Redux timed their investments in the Eagles far better than any other of the Funds, so well in fact that they were able to cover the losses from New Heritage, Prudence and Chi-squared and so create a small net profit for Investors with the Recommended Portfolio.

Western Bulldogs

The Dogs have been one of only three teams on which every Fund has wagered and returned a profit, though in Chi-squared's case the profit is so minuscule that it must be measured with a microscope. Overall, the Recommended Portfolio owes almost 4c of its incremental to the efforts of the Dogs.

Another Week Goes to Script

It's taken two weeks, six games and two remarkable comebacks to give Investors a perfect finals record and recoup all of the losses they suffered in Round 22.

This weekend, the respectively comfortable and miraculous wins of the Dogs and the Pies cranked New Heritage up 9%, Prudence up 1.5%, and Line Redux up 4.5%, elevating the Recommended Portfolio by 3% and the other Portfolios by between 3% and 9%.

That leaves the Recommended Portfolio up a tick over 13% on the season, and the other Portfolios up by amounts ranging from 16% to 34%, which surely means that only a suicidal wagering flurry from New Heritage or Chi-squared could drag any of the Portfolios back into loss over the remainder of the season.

Since we're nearing the end of the season it's time to start reviewing some of the broader trends we've witnessed this year, starting with a look at how the Funds have performed relative to the expectations I set in the Fund Profiles document I issued pre-season.

First, consider New Heritage, which is up almost 34% on the season. It's bet on 53% of games, a little less than I expected, won 74% of those bets, which is at the upper end of my expectations, made bets averaging 8.7% of the Fund, slightly higher than I predicted, and recorded an ROI of 4%, which is at the upper limit of my predictions. Gotta be happy about all that.

Next, Prudence. It's also showing a profit for the season - almost 16% - and its activity and performance levels are all within the advertised ranges. Two votes for happiness.

Then, Hope. It's up a whopping 54% even though its win rate is slightly lower than I'd expected. Bet frequency and average bet size have both been within forecast ranges, but ROI has been a massive 40.5%, shattering the upper limit of my most optimistic forecasts. I'll forgive a Fund that outlays less than I expect if it can generate returns like that from what it does outlay. Happiness 3-0.

Line Redux has overcome a mid-season slump that saw it drop briefly below 79c at the end of Round 12 before rebounding to reach its current value of just under $1.15, its highest value for the season so far. The Fund has wagered a little less often, won a little less frequently and wagered slightly more on average than I anticipated, all of which has produced an ROI below the minimum of my indicated range. Still, a double-digit profit is unsneezeworthy, so add one more to the happiness tally.

Lastly, and undoubtedly leastly, we come to the Chi-squared Fund. As I type this, Chi has only moments ago quietly vacated the space at the left of my feet, clipping his way down the wooden floorboards of our hallway to find a bed somewhere else. I suppose if any living thing's going to sense negative energy it'd be something named Chi wouldn't it?

This year he bet about as often and about as much per bet as I'd foreseen, but won considerably less often than I'd budgeted for, leaving him down over 43% on the season and, consequently, with an ROI on the red side of bad.

Essendon, Sydney and Richmond were all significant contributors to Chi's demise. The Dons cost him almost 25c in winning just 1 of 3 wagers; Richmond cost him another 23c by winning just 1 of 4 wagers; and the Swans lopped off about another 27c by also winning just 1 of 4 wagers.

A consolation point then for unhappiness but still an overwhelming victory for the punting pleasure of all Investors.

Moving on to tipping, ELO maintained its perfect finals tipping record with 2 from 2 this weekend, taking it to 123 from 182 (68%) for the season. BKB and Chi managed only 1 from 2, which leaves BKB at 122 (67%) and Chi at 117 (64%), still creditable performances in each case.

On Line Betting, ELO also sports a perfect 6 from 6 finals record, putting it now up by 12.89 units for the season on level-stake wagering. Chi registered a blank this week and is now just 1 from 6 for the finals. It's not been a happy year for those following a line betting strategy based on Chi's margin tips (unless such a strategy had a strong contrarian element).

Dogs on Friday; Pies on Saturday; Rest on Sunday

Oh what a fickle bunch we Investors are forced to be. This week we'll cheer if the Dogs and the Pies are victorious; last week the cheers were on the other ... well, lips I guess.

Just three Funds are active this week, New Heritage, Prudence and Line Redux.

New Heritage has an 11.8% wager on the Dogs at $1.25 and a 5.2% wager on the Pies at $2.15. I'm sure there's a good reason why the Pies are underdogs, but I'm yet to discover it. Prudence has 5.9% on the Dogs, and Line Redux has 5% on the Dogs giving 26.5 points start.

All of which yields the following Ready Reckoner:

On tipping there's contention in only one of the two contests. In the Dogs v Crows game, BKB, Chi and ELO are all tipping a Dogs win, whereas in the Pies v Lions game, BKB and Chi are tipping the Crows, but ELO's tipping the Pies.

Finally, on line betting, Chi's tipping Brisbane and Adelaide, ELO the Dogs and Collingwood.

A Welcome Regression

Entitlement's a dangerous feeling to harbour as a punter, as sporting events will always unfold as they wish, oblivious to how earlier outcomes might have treated your finances.

So, I'll not claim for a moment that I felt we were entitled to a series of favourable outcomes this weekend to redress the tragicomedy that was last weekend's wagering. Instead, I'll draw upon the nomenclature of the statistician and suggest that what we saw this weekend was an example of "regression to the mean", which, broadly, is the label attached to the phenomenon of witnessing a 'more normal' outcome directly after having witnessed a more extreme one.

It's a phenomenon with a proud history and one that we're all exposed to regularly.

For example, a shambolic experience at a restaurant is more likely to be followed by a more pleasurable one - if only you can bring yourself to return to the same restaurant. And, in a sporting context, it's how you explain the inevitable decline in performance of the previous year's Rookie of the Year.

The logic of regression to the mean is very straightforward. Each time you experience some repeatable event you experience just one of a number of possible "outcomes" for that event. If you could array the set of these possible outcomes you'd find that they tended to follow a vaguely bell-shaped distribution - that is, there'd be a few very bad (or very good outcomes), a few more less bad outcomes, and a far greater number clustered around "average". So, if you suffer a diabolical outcome this time, next time there are a far larger number of better outcomes for you to experience than there are worse outcomes, so you tend to experience one of the better ones.

Our win-every-bet-and-jump-12% performance this weekend was then potentially a particularly gratifying example of regression to the mean. Or, of course, it was just an example of extraordinarily good fortune to which we were completely unentitled.

Anyway, the summary is that the New Heritage Fund landed 3 from 3 to jump by over 13%; Prudence bagged 4 from 4 to jump by 4%; Chi-squared notched 3 from 3 to jump by 22%; and Line Redux landed 2 from 2 to jump by 23%.

Together, these results lifted the value of the Recommended Portfolio by about 12%, moving it back into profit by about 10% on the season. Other Portfolios rose by similar percentages on the weekend, leaving them up by between 13% and 25% for the entire season.

Here's the game-by-game picture for each Portfolio for the season so far:

MAFL Tipping was as accurate as MAFL Wagering, with BKB, Chi and ELO all tipping 4 from 4. ELO also tipped all 4 line betting results and is now at +11.09 units on level-stake line betting based on its tips, which is about a 6.2% ROI.

Week 2 of the Finals looks like this:

Once More With Feeling

(Update at 3:00pm Saturday : Brisbane's giving 6.5 start to the Blues, so no bet)

Stakes at Stake

September's here at last and a few hundred players and at least a few hundred more coaches and support staff will need to find other things to do with their weekends for a while.

Our Funds though remain firmly focussed on this season and they, generally, like what's on offer from TAB Sportsbet this weekend.

The keenest Fund is Chi-squared which has - apparently oblivious to recent performance - waded in with 3 wagers totalling about 28% of the Fund, the largest and riskiest being 10.4% on the Lions at $1.85 at home to the Blues.

Almost as keen is New Heritage, which has also found 3 teams that it's willing to support financially. Its largest wager is 12.9% on Adelaide at $1.10 at home facing the Dons and its riskiest is, like Chi-squared's, on the Lions and is sized at 6.9%.

For the second week running, Line Redux has found reason to depart from its usual 5%-per-game wagering strategy, this time dropping 15.9% on Geelong who are giving the Dogs 6.5 points start in their clash at the G. Its other wager is the more customary 5%, on the Saints giving the Pies 7.5 start in their clash, also at the G.

What Prudence lacks this week in terms of strength of conviction it makes up for in breadth. It has wagers, totalling only about 10.5% of the Fund, but spread over all 4 favourites. (In fact, 1 was an equal favourite as at Wednesday but is now an underdog on the TAB). These wagers include 6% on Adelaide and 1.3% on the Lions.

Hope, for only the third time this season and for the first time in 9 rounds, has chosen to abstain for the duration of the weekend. When you're up by over 54% on the season, I guess you get to choose your moments.

Ready Reckoner

Combined, these wagers produce this Ready Reckoner, which has a disturbing resemblance to last weekend's:

Far from retreating into hiding, taking a breather, taking stock, or getting their collective wind back - choose your own favourite cliche - the MAFL Funds have made 12 wagers this weekend, an average of 3 a game. For all Investors except MIN#017, this round represents the highest outlay per game for any round this season.

The line bet on the Cats makes their game the one of most interest to most Investors, but all matches hold some level of financial interest for all Investors exceot MIN#017.

Tipping

Most of the MAFL tipsters retire at the end of the home and away season; only BKB, Chi and ELO continue to tip throughout the Finals.

These remaining tipsters are unanimous on all games this weekend. (Note that I've recorded BKB as tipping the Lions this weekend, consistent with the principle that it follows the CTL strategy when the TAB Sportsbet prices are the same for each team.)

Chi this week has 2 Games of the Round - Lions v Carlton and St Kilda v Collingwood - for both of which he is predicting a 5 point margin of victory.

ELO has just a single Game of the Round and it is the Lions v Carlton clash, though it foresees no close games this weekend and predicts a 22 point winning margin even for its Game of the Round.

Line Betting

On Line Betting:

• Chi's on Essendon, Geelong, Carlton, Collingwood
• ELO's on Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, St Kilda