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I can be contacted via Tony.Corke@gmail.com

 

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Sunday
Aug192012

2012 Round 21 Results : Our Two Cents Worth

It can only be politely described as misplaced optimism when you spend Sunday afternoon and evening hoping that a team vying for the Spoon can contrive to lose by only 5 or 6 goals to a team vying for the Flag and, in so doing, turn a small wagering loss for the round into a moderate profit.

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Wednesday
Aug152012

2012 Round 21 - Wagers & Tips : Heliocentric Wagering

This week apparently - and relatively speaking - the TAB Bookmaker has priced most of the markets correctly. At least that's the collective view of the Head-to-Head, Line and Margin Funds which, between them, have ventured just ten wagers, representing only about one-eighth of Investors' original funds, the smallest single-round outlay since Round 13 and only the third-largest this season since all three Funds have been active. Now really wasn't the time I was looking for introspection ...

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Monday
Aug132012

2012 MARS, Colley, Massey and ODM Ratings After Round 20

MARS altered its view about the ranking of just three teams this week, demoting Essendon and Fremantle by one spot each and elevating Richmond by two, mainly on the basis of the unexpectedly large victory by the Tigers.

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Sunday
Aug122012

2012 Round 20 Results : Near Enough Isn't Good Enough

As if taking a leaf from the Australian Olympians, Combo_NN2 finished with the SuperMargin equivalent of Silver in five contests this week, selecting the bucket next to the winner on each occasion (and failing to record a PB in any of them).

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Thursday
Aug092012

2012 AFL Futures Markets After Round 19

I've just reviewed the current TAB AFL Futures markets in light of the recent simulations I performed of the remainder of the season, and the only value bets at the moment (assuming you agree with the MARS Ratings I've used in the simulations) are: 

  • Geelong to Make the Final 8 : offers an estimated 6% edge at $1.10
  • Geelong to Make the Top 4 : offers an estimated 14% edge at $8
  • St Kilda to Miss the Top 8 : offers an estimated 11% edge at $1.40
  • GWS to Win the Spoon : offers an estimated 4% edge at $1.40