Second-Placed Cats Spoil the Symmetry (Not That They Care)

Ah well, the better side on the day and all that. Congrats to the Cats but they can count themselves very lucky indeed as a gracious coach admitted in his post-game address.

The Saints' lack of finish in front of goal cost Investors dearly this weekend, the undefended goal-after-the-siren merely making their frustration complete as it consigned their line bet to the same fate as their multitudinous head-to-head bets.

Those with the Recommended Portfolio wound up losing 6.1% on the GF to finish the season up by about 1.4%. MIN#001 lost 6.3% to finish up 5.9% for the season, MIN#015 lost 5.9% to finish up 5.2% on the season, and MIN#017 lost just 4% to finish up 33.4% on the season. So, as we knew before the Granny started, profit for everybody. Just not as much as I'd hoped.

Investors: please advise me by e-mail what you'd like done with your Funds.

We now enter the chart and table section of this blog. Prepare to scroll.

Here's a chart showing the game-by-game performance of every Investor's Portfolio:

As you can see by those dips on the far right, Investors lost money over the course of the Finals this year, in stark contrast with years past.

Next, here's a chart giving the round-by-round summary:

Turning our attention to the individual Funds, we start with a table showing each Fund's performance with every team across the entire season:

And we follow this with a table summarising this data by team:

Lastly, we finish with a round-by-round summary:

On tipping BKB finishes the year with 125 from 185 (68%), ELO with 124 from 185 (67%), and Chi with 118 from 185 (64%). If offered these stats at the start of the season I'd have accepted Chi's and leapt at ELO's.

On line betting, ELO and Chi both finish with a loss, leaving Chi on 85 from 185 for the season (and 1 from 9 in the finals), and ELO on 103 from 185. Level-stake wagering on ELO's line bets would have yielded 9.49 units of profit across the season. Level-stake wagering on Chi's line bets would have yielded a peptic ulcer.

Chi's final Mean APE is 30.6 points per game, beaten by ELO's 28.7 points per game, in turn edged out by BKB's 28.0 points per game. On Median APE ELO is the best of the three. Its 23 points beats BKB's 23.5 points. Chi's 26 points places him third.

This Week We're All Saints

After 341 wagers across 184 games Investors with the Recommended Portfolio have effectively offered the TAB Sportsbet bookie a double-or-quits proposition.

If the Saints win on Saturday, their profit will lift from about 7.5% of Initial Funds to about 15.1%; if the Saints lose the entire year's effort will amount to a profit of about 1.4%.

The story for other Investors is different but they too are now all guaranteed a profit for season 2009 ranging in size from 5% to 33%.

Head-to-head bets on the Saints range from Chi-squared's 14.1% to Prudence's 3.2%, and Line Redux has its customary 5% on the Saints +8.5 points.

The bookies' re-estimation of the relative chances of the Saints and the Cats on the basis of just one game each has been quite dramatic and, in my view, excessive. This time last week I calculated that we should expect a Saints price of $1.80 to $1.95 if they were to take on the Cats in the GF. We got them at $2.30.

Our Ready Reckoner is as follows:

Those are fairly dramatic swings for just a single game. Still, it is the Granny ...

On tipping this week, a little explanation is required.

Not for Chi, who's on the Saints by 3, nor for BKB, who's on the Cats, but for ELO, who's on the Saints by 31 despite the fact that Geelong have a marginally better MARS rating (1,043.3 to the Saints' 1,043.1) and there's no true home team this week.

All year I've been selecting ELO's tips using a model, fitted to the results for seasons 2000 to 2008, that converts MARS ratings into predicted margins and takes into account true and notional home team status. This model, in the finals especially, places a great deal of weight on the home team even if that team is only the notional home team. The logic behind this is that, in the absence of a true home team, the notional home team - such as the Saints this week - finished higher on the competition ladder.

So, for ELO, the Saints by 31 points it is.

On Line Betting this means that Chi and ELO are also both on the Saints.

(Incidentally Chi's Mean APE is 30.7 points per game and his Median APE is 26.5 points. Any hopes of a sub-30 point Mean APE are long-gone, but around 30.5 points per game - which is possible if the Saints do win by around 3 points - is still a respectable outcome, unlike say his wagering performance.

ELO's Mean APE is 28.6 points per game and its Median APE is 23.0 points, respectable results both. With a Saints victory of the optimum magnitude - 31 points - the Mean APE could even finish below 28.5 points per game.

BKB's Mean APE is 28.1 points per game and its Median APE is 23.5 points, remarkably still trailing ELO's.)

Cold Pies Disappoint Investors

The neatness of the 2009 AFL Finals series continues, as the teams finishing 3rd and 4th on the home and away season ladder depart in the Prelims as scripted, leaving 1st to play 2nd in the GF.

A shame then that we wagered against such a tidy outcome.

St Kilda's head-to-head win and line betting loss, coupled with head-to-head and line betting losses for the Pies, left most Funds and Portfolios in red ink for the weekend.

New Heritage was the only Fund to increase in value, rising about 3.5% on 1 successful wager from 2. It's now made 99 bets during the season, 74% of which have been winners. Prudence was the only other Fund to land a winning wager, notching 1 from 2, but nonetheless shed a little under 2% in value. It's made 93 bets this season, winning 73% of them.

Chi-squared dropped furthest this weekend, frittering almost 16% on the Pies. It's made 42 bets this season, winning just 48%. Hope, another Pie-eyed Fund (gotta get these puns out now - time's running out this season), dropped a little over 5%. It's made 34 bets this season, winning exactly half.

Line Redux contrived to finish on the wrong side of both line markets this weekend (as did Chi and ELO), causing it to drop 10% of its initial value. It's made 73 bets this season and won 52% of them.

So, the Recommended Portfolio drops a little under 6%, leaving it up about 7.5% for the season. In other Portfolio news, MIN#001 and MIN#015 both dropped around 5-6% leaving them up about 11-12% on the season, and MIN#017 recorded the weekend's only Portfolio increase, rising about 3.5% to be up 37% on the season.

On tipping, Chi and ELO scored 1 from 2 and BKB scored 2 from 2. BKB and ELO are now tied on 124 from 184 (67%), 6 tips ahead of Chi on 118 (64%).

Pies To Spring the Upset?

It's that time of year when I wonder whether or not to ignore home ground advantage.

This week's Geelong v Pies clash is, as you probably know, being played at the MCG. Geelong, as the team finishing higher on the ladder, are the AFL's notional home team. But the G is Collingwood's home ground, not Geelong's (although it must be beginning to feel like a second home for the Cats and their supporters).

In the end, I've stuck with tradition and coded for this as a home game for the purposes of the MAFL models.

As a consequence of this coding, all the Funds, New Heritage excluded, can consider only Pies wagers. As it turns out, all of them, including New Heritage if only barely, have accepted the invitation to punt on a Pie.

Across the two games, New Heritage has 2 wagers totalling around 11.5% of the Fund, though only the one on St Kilda is of any consequence. Prudence also has two wagers, totalling almost 8.5% of the Fund in its case and biased slightly towards the Saints in size if not in risk.

Hope has a single wager of around 5% on the Pies, Chi-squared also has just a single wager on the Pies, though his is for 15.5% of the Fund (the phrase "death or glory" springs immediately, unbidden, to mind).

Line Redux has a 5% wager on each of the Saints, giving 17.5 start, and the Pies, receiving 15.5.

Here's what the Ready Reckoner resembles:

On tipping, we've unanimity in support of the Saints, but a 2-1 split for the Pies in the other game.

For line betting, Chi and ELO are both on the Saints and the Pies.

To Which Teams Do Investors Owe Thanks?

For the next in our series of season-in-review pieces, I thought we'd take a look at how each of the Funds and the Recommended Portfolio has fared wagering on each of the teams.

On the left, I've shown the performance as bar charts, each with a range of -55% to +55% (the blue line is at 0); on the right, I've shown the equivalent numbers.

Adelaide

Most Funds and the Recommended Portfolio made a small profit on Crows-wagering this season, though Chi-squared did manage to time its wagers to produce a smallish loss.

Brisbane Lions

New Heritage read the Lions' performances best of all and rose by nearly 8c on the strength of Lions-based wagering. Prudence eked out a small gain, but Hope, Chi-squared and Line Redux all made losses, which meant that the Recommended Portfolio made an overall small loss.

Carlton

Carlton were one of only two teams that brought pestilence to all who wagered upon her. Hope and Line Redux were smart enough to completely ignore the Blues, but Prudence and, especially, New Heritage and Chi-squared foundered upon the Blues' rocky form. Consequently, the Recommended Portfolio registered a loss from Blues betting - only one of three losses that it registered on teams making the final 8.

Collingwood

So far, only Prudence has failed to profit from the Pies' successful season. For New Heritage, the Pies have generated the largest return of any team, and for the Recommended Portfolio they're currently the fifth most profitable team.

Essendon

Wagering on the Dons this year has been all about timing, and Hope's really had it, Line Redux has had it a little, and the rest - Chi-squared especially - haven't had it at all. For the Recommended Portfolio, Essendon has been one of only six unprofitable teams.

Fremantle

Though they've not pleased their fans much this year, the Dockers have certainly pleased Investors. Every Fund has cranked out a profit wagering on them, Hope most of all, making Freo the third most profitable team for those with the Recommended Portfolio.

Geelong

Geelong is another team that has been bounteous for all who've had faith, which for MAFL has been every Fund except Hope. New Heritage has been particularly astute in pouncing on the Cats, generating almost 12c of incremental value from their victories.

Hawthorn

For New Heritage, Prudence and Hope, the Hawks have been a source of modest profit, but for Chi-squared and (very much) for Line Redux, the opposite has been true. In fact, Line Redux has destroyed almost one-half of its initial value on the shoals of Hawks' line results. As a consequence, the Hawks have produced the worst performance of any team for Investors with the Recommended Portfolio, destroying almost 11c worth of initial value.

Kangaroos

The Roos have generally been a team of little import as far as MAFL wagering has been concerned. New Heritage and Line Redux have squandered a little on them, but Prudence, Hope and Chi-squared have profited a little, resulting in a small gain from the Roos for the Recommended Portfolio.

Melbourne

Traditionally, MAFL Investors have revelled in those teams that have managed to produce the occasional, lucrative, at-home victory, which is exactly what the Dees have done this year. Only Hope missed out on the party, while, in contrast, Chi-squared benefited to the tune of over 27c. Overall, Melbourne generated the largest value of any team for Investors with the Recommended Portfolio, contributing almost 9c of incremental value.

Port Adelaide

Port are another team that have disappointed fans but thrilled Investors. Every Fund made money wagering on them, Chi-squared and Line Redux most of all, making them the second most profitable of all the teams for the Recommended Portfolio.

Richmond

As far as Investors are concerned the Tigers couldn't even time their wins advantageously this season. Every Fund lost money wagering on them bar the Hope Fund, which avoided loss by avoiding wagering on them. With a net loss of almost 8c, the Tigers were the second greatest value destroyers for the Recommended Portfolio of any team. Chi-squared, in particular, found them to be an unprofitable addiction.

St Kilda

Aside from a brief period late in the home-and-away season it's been hard to place losing wagers on the Saints, as every Fund but Hope has discovered. The Recommended Portfolio owes 5c worth of its gain to the performances of the Saints.

Sydney

Only Prudence and Line Redux escaped the cash vortex that was Swan-betting this season. Consequently, the Recommended Portfolio dropped over 7c thanks to the Swans, the third-highest loss amongst all the teams.

West Coast

Hope and Line Redux timed their investments in the Eagles far better than any other of the Funds, so well in fact that they were able to cover the losses from New Heritage, Prudence and Chi-squared and so create a small net profit for Investors with the Recommended Portfolio.

Western Bulldogs

The Dogs have been one of only three teams on which every Fund has wagered and returned a profit, though in Chi-squared's case the profit is so minuscule that it must be measured with a microscope. Overall, the Recommended Portfolio owes almost 4c of its incremental to the efforts of the Dogs.