Round 1: The Washup

All things considered, I'd take those Round 1 results every time.

For Investors, the finest of traditions has been continued and many of them are now a little more wealthy than they were on Thursday, thanks entirely to a stirring comeback from the Hawks that, while ultimately unsuccessful in landing the two points, was good enough to prevent the Cats from covering the spread.

BKB, CTL and most of the heuristic tipsters bagged 6 tips, Chi and ELO bagged 4 (Chi having been 0 from 3 and down at half-time in the next two), and only Home Sweet Home scored worse than chance, recording just 3 from 8.

So, onto Round 2 ...

Gone in Nine Hundred Seconds

So much fanfare for so little action.

Just one bet this weekend: Hawthorn +17.5 against Geelong at $1.90.

(You can download the details via the Wagers, Tips & Results link at right.)

We would - indeed should - also have been on the Lions at -23.5 against West Coast except that the value in the bet disappeared with extraordinary speed earlier today. The Line market went up at 11:49am and then, in the time during which I ran the models and cranked out our bets, which took about 15 minutes, the Line market for the Lions/Eagles game went from $1.90/$1.90 to $1.80/$2.00. Clearly, a bunch of savvy punters saw the opportunity and took it, depriving us of our own opportunity to share in the imbalance. A move of 10c in the first fifteen minutes of a Line market suggests that someone got something terribly wrong.

Had the starts in other games been a little less generous we'd have also been on the Pies and Port (which sounds a little like a desperately unhealthy meal), but 21.5 and 22.5 points start respectively just don't quite offer enough value to justify a nibble.

On the tipping front Richmond, the Lions and St Kilda enjoy unanimous support. Bear in mind that, amongst the heuristic tipsters, all but Home Sweet Home follow Consult the Ladder in Round 1, so the near unanimity amongst them is somewhat artificial.

Chi's Game of the Round is tomorrow night's Richmond v Carlton game in which he's plumped for the Tigers by just 1 point. ELO's Game of the Round is the Hawks v Cats matchup for which it's also predicting a 1 point result. Both are tipping something of a blowout in the Lions/Eagles clash.

(Note that at this point there's no Line market for Sunday's Freo v Bulldogs game. I'll update the download file once this information is available.)

Here's to continuing the tradition of MAFL Round 1 success.

An Important Message for All Investors

The information about each MAFL Fund that I've provided in the downloadable PDF includes how many bets each Fund can be expected to make during the course of the season and how big those bets are likely to be.

For clarity and to avoid surprising anyone, I thought it would be appropriate to re-present some of the data in the PDF from a weekly rather than a whole of season perspective. I've done this in the following table.

So, if you're investing in New Heritage, be aware that it will, if history's any guide, invest at least 25% of the Fund each week and as much as 70% of the Fund in the most extreme weeks. That is a large proportion of the Fund to put at risk but recognise that the average price of the teams on which the Fund wagers is just $1.57. At that price, firstly it's highly unlikely to lose a long string of bets and, secondly, the Fund needs to bet larger amounts in order to generate worthwhile profits.

Similarly, if you've some Chi-squared in your portfolio, be aware that you'll have 25% of the Fund in play about 4 weeks in 10 and around 55% in the most extreme weeks.

Even the Prudence, Hope and Line Redux Funds will occasionally splurge and have 25-35% of Funds at risk, although each of these these Funds will generally be much more sedate than this.

Bearing in mind that it'll only be the Line Redux Fund trading for the first 4 weeks of the season, if you're at all uncomfortable about your portfolio weightings now that you've read this blog you still have plenty of time to advise me of any changes that you'd like to make.

Otherwise, get ready to watch your money work much harder this year.