2011 Round 15: No Attachment

Continuing Sunday's theme, this week I'm choosing to be unattached to the results that the round's football provides (we'll see how long that lasts ... I give it until about 8pm Friday night). This weekend there's less to be attached to anyway since we've no bet in three of the eight games and only a perfunctory 0.4% line bet in another. All told, we've just 2 head-to-head bets totalling just under 10% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and 5 line bets totalling almost 15% of the Line Fund.

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2011 MARS Ratings After Round 14

Not just the usual one but two more Ratings systems to review this week (three if you consider the competition ladder to be a Ratings system too).

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2011 Round 14 Results: Small Wins, Bigger Losses

It's a Zen thing. Winning by losing; succeeding by failing; being right by being wrong; profiting by making losses. Either that or football betting is subject to a version of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle such that you can only understand the statistical characteristics of AFL or accurately estimate teams' true victory probabilities, but not both. In which case, five years of analysing and writing about the former has been irretrievably detrimental to the latter.

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2011 Round 14: Commencing The Slow Climb?

Eight bets this week, five from the Head-to-Head Fund and three from the Line Fund. Four of the Head-to-Head bets are on short-priced favourites and the fifth is for only about 2% of the Fund on Port Adelaide at $2.65 in the last game of the Round. The largest wager is for nearly 15% of the Fund and is on the Round's shortest-priced team, the Cats, at $1.04. In total the Head-to-Head Fund has wagered a little over one-third of the Fund, mostly on the wagering equivalent of blue chip stocks though with decidedly more of a post-GFC than a pre-GFC risk of default.

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2011 MARS Ratings After Round 13

Almost all of this week's movement on the MARS Rating ladder took place amongst teams in the bottom half.

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