Almost Perfect

Wagering weekends don't come much sweeter than this last one. Only Geelong's lack of killer instinct - which surely must be troubling the Cats' coaches and fans alike - spoiled a 15 wins from 15 wagers result.

Still, 14 from 15 was good enough to allow all Investors to record solid gains for the week in amounts ranging from about 5% to 8.5%. On the back of these gains the Recommended Portfolio is now up by over 4% and all other Portfolios are up by between 6% and 33%.

At the Fund level, Hope rose by the largest percentage, climbing 8.5% on the strength of its sole wager on the Dons. The Dons have now contributed more than 34c worth of gains to the Hope Fund, the result of 3 wins from 5 wagers. Overall, the Hope Fund now has a 7 and 9 record.

The next highest increase was recorded by Prudence, whose 7% increase this week thanks to 6 successful wagers, was its greatest single-week increase this season. Prudence now has a 5 from 5 record with St Kilda, a 3 from 3 record with Geelong, and a 30 from 39 record overall.

New Heritage bagged 5 from 5 and jumped 6.3%. It now has perfect records with Geelong (3 from 3), St Kilda (5 from 5), Collingwood (3 from 3), and the Lions (3 from 3). Its season-long record stands at 31 from 42.

The only other active Fund this weekend was the Line Redux Fund, which managed 2 wins from 3 thus registering only its third profitable round in the last 10. It now stands at 16 from 35 for the season.

On tipping, Silhouette and Shadow each scored 7 from 8, moving them to 76 from 104 (73%) for the season, one further tip clear of BKB, whose 6 from 8 left it on 73 from 104 (70%). STM II also scored 7 from 8 and is now on 72 from 104 (69%). Only one tipster picked all 8 winners this weekend: HSH, who now sits on 60 from 104 (58%). No tipster fared worse than 6 from 8.

All that fine tipping has lifted the wagering returns from level-staking our tipsters' tips. Nine tipsters are now showing a profit on level-stake, home-team only wagering, commencing in Round 6, and four of those are also showing a profit on level-stake, season-long wagering.

Moving to line betting, Chi and ELO each tipped 5 from 8 this weekend, which leaves ELO at 59 from 104 for the season and Chi at 47 from 104. Level-stake wagering on ELO line bets is now showing a +7.17 unit return for the season.

Lastly, an update on the Mean Absolute Prediction Error metric. Chi's MAPE is currently 30.9 points per game while ELO's is an exceptional 27.9 points per game, only narrowly trailing BKB's 27.7 points per game.

No Triskaidekaphobia Here

Clearly the Funds aren't superstitious. Why else would they, collectively, choose Round 13 as the round in which to - for most Investors - make their largest outlay?

Foremost for profligacy amongst the Funds is the New Heritage Fund, which this week has found five wagers totalling approximately 64% of Initial Funds at prices ranging from $1.04 (for the Cats) to $1.22 (for Adelaide). So, mercifully, not much in terms of risk for each bet, but a considerable amount in terms of total risk. Indeed, this is the largest amount that the Heritage Fund has wagered in any single round this season.

Prudence, too, has set a record for most Initial Funds at risk this week. It's wagered about 31% of the Fund on six wagers, five of them on the same teams as the New Heritage Fund, but the sixth on West Coast at - wait for it - $3. Since when does Prudence wager on 2/1 longshots?

The Hope Fund is a little more restrained, making just a single wager on Essendon at $2.65 for a smidgeon over 5% of the Fund.

Also somewhat restrained is the Line Redux Fund with 3 wagers this week totalling 15% of the Fund. Two of these wagers are on short-priced favourites offering 44.5 (Brisbane) and 47.5 (Geelong) points, and the third is on the Roos receiving 36.5 points.

Coyest of all is the Chi-squared Fund, which has found nothing to wager on this week.

As I hinted at earlier, combined these wagers represent the largest single-round outlay for all Investors except MIN #002. The table below provides detail about the outlay and return for each Investor profile for each round.

On then to this week's Ready Reckoner:

So, for those with the Recommended Portfolio and for MIN #001 and MIN #015, the Geelong v Port clash is that contest representing the largest potential swing between the best and worst results. For this same group of Investors, the Brisbane v Melbourne matchup represents the next largest swing.

(This week the Ready Reckoner includes information about the best- and worst-possible outcomes for each Investor across the weekend. For example, a perfect set of eight results for those with the Recommended Portfolio would lead to about a 7% gain and, by contrast, a anti-perfect set of eight result would lead to just over a 24% drop.)

To tipping:

• Essendon, the market underdogs, are 9-4 favourites over the Blues. Amongst our best tipsters, BKB, ELO and CTL are all siding with the Blues, while Silhouette, Shadow and STM II are with the Dons. ELO, though coming down in favour of the Blues, has them winning by just 2 points, making this its Game of the Round.
• Collingwood are unanimous favourites over Freo.
• Adelaide are unanimous favourites over the Swans.
• Brisbane, continuing the trend, are unanimous favourites over the Dees.
• Hawthorn are 11-2 favourites over the Eagles. Our two least-performed tipsters in HSH and EI I are the Eagles' only friends.
• Geelong, as is custom, are unanimous favourites over Port.
• The Dogs are the round's fifth unanimous favourites, they over the Roos. Chi, however, has the Dogs winning by just 4 points and therefore has this as his Game of the Round.
• St Kilda are 12-1 favourites over Richmond, the Tiger's sole supporter being EI I, which this year is just about as close to no support at all as it's possible to have.

The only game with any significant implications for our top tipsters is, therefore, Friday nights Dons v Blues clash.

On Line Betting this week, Chi's with all the teams receiving start. ELO differs only in that it's predicting the joint competition leaders in the Cats and the Saints to cover the spread.

Swans Turn Into Ugly Ducklings

Two of the three teams did what Investors asked of them this weekend, but Sydney's failure to be amongst this group meant another small loss for most this weekend. This leaves the Recommended Portfolio down about 1% on the season and all other Investors up by amounts ranging from 0.9% (MIN #015) to 24.6% (MIN #002).

At this point in the season New Heritage is up about 11%, Prudence is up about 3.5%, Hope is up almost 25%, Chi-squared is down about 17.5%, and the Line Redux Fund is down about 21%.

On tipping, Silhouette and Shadow continue to perform well and jointly lead our tipping competition, two tips clear of BKB and four tips clear of STM II, who've leaped into fourth thanks to an 8 from 8 performance this round. Over the past 3 rounds STM II has scored 21 from 24.

On level-stake, home-team-only wagering, commencing in Round 6, we still have five tipsters showing a profit: Shadow, Silhouette, BKB, STM II and EI II. Three of these tipsters - Silhouette, Shadow and STM II - are also showing a profit on season-long wagering.

ELO performed well again this round on line betting, picking up 6 from 8 to go to 54 and 42 for the season, which is good enough for a 5.67 unit profit on level-stake wagering across the season. Chi managed just 4 from 8 and is now 42 and 54 for the season.

A Trio to Finish

Round 12 continues this weekend, with just three games to complete the formalities.

The New Heritage Fund has two wagers across the weekend totalling around 19% of the Fund. By a considerable margin the larger wager is at $1.25 on the Dons, a team with which New Heritage has had a barely profitable season. The other wager at a generous $1.90 on Sydney, a team which has been responsible for a 12c gain in the New Heritage Fund price (and for a 5c gain in the Prudence Fund).

Prudence has two wagers too, and they're also on the Dons and the Swans. Together, they total about 6% of the Fund.

Line Redux has just one wager, on Freo with 45.5 points start playing the Cats, though there might be another wager on Sydney when their line market opens for betting. This is the Line Redux Fund's first wager on Fremantle this season.

Chi-squared and Hope complete a quiet round for them both, with neither of them venturing a wager this weekend. Between them, they've mustered on a single bet across the entire round. Earlier in the week Chi-squared was contemplating a wager on the Swans, but it went off this idea when the Pies shortened to equal favouritism. The Chi-squared Fund is very sensitive to price movements around the $1.85-$1.95 range.

Here's this week's Ready Reckoner (which I'll update if the Sydney line bet eventuates, so please have another look before the weekend).

(Thursday night update: no line bet on Sydney. Even though they're receiving 6.5 points start - and I expected them to be giving it - they're only at $1.75. There's no value in that.)

So it's the Essendon v Melbourne game that has the greatest potential impact on all Investors except for the once-again wagerless MIN#002.

To tipping:

• The Dons are unanimous favourites over the Dees.
• The Pies are 11-2 favourites over Sydney, though one of the Swans' supporters is ELO. Both Chi and ELO have this as their Game of the Half Round. (Note that, since Sydney and Collingwood are equal favourites, BKB goes with CTL and so is on the Pies.)
• Geelong are 12-1 favourites over Freo. Only HSH is opting for the home team.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are Melbourne, Sydney and Freo
• ELO's line bets Essendon, Sydney and Freo.

Split Round, Spilt Money

To (mis)use a footballing term: it was a weekend of two halves.

Saturday was wonderful, with the Dogs and the Tigers doing what we'd asked. Sunday was, in equal measure, appalling, due largely to the Hawks' failure to show up for the second half, but capped off by the Roos' inferior aquatic skills against the Crows at Football Baths.

All told, every Investor with a wager in the round so far - which excludes only MIN#002 - has lost money, in amounts ranging from 2.5% to 10.2%. So, at this point, 5 games into the split 12th round, the Recommended Portfolio is under water by about 0.8%. Other portfolios remain profitable, but MIN#001 and MIN#002 are now just a loss or two away from red ink.

On tipping, Silhouette and Shadow are joint leaders on 66, BKB is third on 64, and STM II, with 5 from 5 for the weekend, has moved into fourth on 62.

There's still 3 more games to turn this Round around ...