MAFL 2010 : Round 18

If the Recommended Portfolio is to make a bid for profitability I've a feeling that this weekend needs to be the start of it. That Portfolio has 24 wagers this weekend totalling just a little under one quarter of the Fund. As is becoming customary, New Heritage has the majority of the action, this week putting almost one half of its Fund in play on 5 wagers at an average price of $1.39, chief amongst them 12.5% wagers on the Pies and the Dogs who are both at $1.15 this week at home facing the Blues and the Roos respectively.

Click to read more ...

MAFL 2010 : Round 17 Results

Once the Roos had lost narrowly to the Dons on Saturday, Investors with the Recommended Portfolio needed the remaining four results to go their way to finish the weekend in the black. Carlton's second-half rejuvenation a little later on Saturday put paid to any such hopes so that, despite a perfect set of outcomes on Sunday, the Portfolio still dropped in value by a little under 1.4% across the weekend.

Click to read more ...

MAFL 2010 : Round 17

First, some good news.

Back in Round 14, Investors in the Recommended Portfolio had a line bet on the Saints, who played Melbourne at Dockland. In the Bet Summary for the week I had the Saints giving the Dees 35.5 points start, which meant that their eventual 100-65 victory was a half-point short of covering the spread, a fact that I seem to recall lamenting at some length, certainly in the conversations that I had in the following week, and probably in the blog too (which I'm not of a mind to review at the moment).

Well every couple of weeks I reconcile the TAB's view of our finances with the view that I maintain via a spreadsheet and in performing this reconciliation I discovered that the Saints were actually giving 32.5 rather than 35.5 points start. So, our line bet was a winner and I can report that this skyrockets the Recommended Portfolio price up by 1c. It now stands at 91.3c.

Recommended Portfolio holders would do well to bear in mind that they're a little wealthier than they thought they were when they started reading this blog, as they review this week's assortment of wagers.

In total, there are 27 of them representing over one-quarter of Total Initial Funds. New Heritage owns seven of them, which together represent about 60% of that Fund and which have been wagered at a weighted average price of $1.29. This relatively low weighted average is due partly to the fact that the two largest New Heritage wagers are at prices of $1.10 or lower.

Including this week's 60% contribution, every dollar in the Heritage Fund has now been wagered 5.6 times. Unfortunately, so far it's only come back a little over 5 times.

The Heuristic-Based Fund has made 5 bets totalling 25% of the Fund with a weighted average price of $1.35. The average price is boosted by its largest wager, which is on the Eagles at $1.90 who are narrow underdogs in their game with the Blues.

ELO-Line also has 5 wagers representing 25% of the Fund. Four of these wagers are on favourites giving start, and one is on an underdog receiving start.

Prudence has made 4 selections totalling 21% of the Fund and, true to its name, has secured a weighted average price of $1.17, due largely to the fact that its 2 largest wagers are, like the New Heritage Fund, on teams priced at $1.10 or below.

Shadow is the next most active Fund with 3 wagers totalling 15% of the Fund. These are at a weighted average price of $1.18, only fractionally higher than Prudence's and this only because Shadow's largest wager is on the Roos at $1.40.

That leaves only the Hope Fund, which has ventured just 3 wagers for 11% of the Fund this week though these have been placed at a weighted average price of $2, the highest of all the Funds due largely to a wager on the Dees at $2.25.

These Hope bets are also the wagers for MIN#002, and those of the New Heritage Fund are the wagers of MIN#017.

Here's the detail:

Key matches this weekend for those with the Recommended Portfolio are the St Kilda v Hawthorn game (which offers a round-high 1.9% upside), the Geelong v Lions game (which carries a round-high 6.0% downside and a near round-high 6.8% swing), and the Collingwood v Richmond game (which carries a round-high 6.9% swing).

MIN#002 cares most about the Roos v Essendon game as it represents for him both the largest possible gain (+2.0%) and the largest swing between potential win and potential loss (-7.0%).

MIN#017 faces five games for which the potential swing is 14% or more. The St Kilda v Hawthorn game offers the greatest upside of just under 6%, the Cats v Lions game threatens the largest loss at just over 13%, and the swing between the best and worst possible outcomes is greatest for the Roos v Dons clash where the difference is almost 15% (though this is only a tad higher than the swing for the Dogs v Freo game).

So the week's Ready Reckoner, as Russian Roulette, is startlingly unbalanced with respect to upside and downside risk for all Investors:

What better way to emphasise for Recommended Portfolio holders the disparity between potential profit and possible loss for most of this week's games than to construct a visual representation (aka a chart) of the Ready Reckoner?

(Games where there are two bars of equal length are those in which Investors have either no head-to-head bet or no line bet. As such Investors' return is unchanged by the result on whichever market they have no stake in.)

MAFL Tipsters are unanimous or near to it for five of this week's games and almost 50-50 split on the remaining three contests.

Here are the details:

• St Kilda are 8-7 favourites over Hawthorn. All five Margin Tippers predict a Saints victory, by margins ranging from 7.5 to 20 points, while Easily Impressed I and II, the leading MAFL tipsters, both tip a Hawks win.
• Collingwood are unanimous favourites over the Tigers, with the Margin Tippers predicting Pies wins by between 14 and 58 points.
• Geelong are unanimous favourites over the Lions, making this the second week in a row that the MAFL Tipsters have been united in discounting the Lions' chances. The Margin Tippers predict victory margins in the 22 to 52 point range.
• The Kangaroos are 13-2 favourites over Essendon. Once again the Margin Tippers are unanimous in their support, though for this game their predicted victory margins span a narrow range of 15 to 23 points. Easily Impressed I and II are split on this game's outcome.
• Carlton are 9-6 favourites over the Eagles. This is the first game for which the Margin Tippers disagree about the likely result, with three predicting a Carlton win and two an Eagles win. HAMP tips West Coast by 1 point, making this its Game of the Round, which it also is for BKB. Easily Impressed I and II are split on this game too.
• The Dogs are 10-5 favourites over Fremantle, though all five Margin Tippers are on the Dogs with predicted margins ranging from 15 to 28 points. Easily Impressed I and II both predict wins by the Dogs.
• Sydney are 13-2 favourites over Melbourne. Four of the five Margin Tippers predict Sydney victories, including ELO, which tips a 13 point Swans win, and Chi, who tips a 4 point Swans victory, making this both tipsters' Game of the Round. LAMP predicts a 1 point Melbourne win and also has this as its Game of the Round. Easily Impressed I and II both predict Sydney wins.
• Adelaide are 14-1 favourites over Port, with the Margin Tippers again unanimous in their support. Predicted margins range from 10 to 24 points. Easily Impressed I and II both predict Adelaide victories.

Here's a chart that might help you decide whether or not to take heed of any of that. It shows the cumulative tipping performance of the MAFL Tipsters as at the end of Rounds 11 and 16.

You'll recall that I'm field-testing two new algorithms for next season: a Bookie Probability Model (BPM) that will bet head-to-head on home teams only, and a Super Smart Model (SSM) that will bet on the line market.

BPM this week recommends only one bet: 1.2% on Adelaide, which it sees as value at $3.75. (Actually it also recommends a second bet on St Kilda, but the recommended size is 0.02%, which means that you'd need a bank of $5,000 in order for this recommendation to equate to the minimum allowed $1 wager. I think it's fair to deem a 0.02% recommended bet as somewhat below the level of 'who cares'.)

Here's what SSM makes of the round:

SSM agrees with only one of ELO's five bets, that on the Dogs, and disagrees with those on the Saints, Pies, Cats and Port. SSM would also have wagered on the Roos, the Dees and the Eagles, all of which selections would meet ELO's home-team-only wagering constraint. Well with that level of disagreement we certainly won't be running both ELO-Line and SSM next season.

HELP has come up with a more sensible set of probability assessments this week and has also gone with a balanced 4 home and 4 away team split:

MAFL 2010 : Round 16 Results

If ever you wanted evidence to support the aphorism that it's unwise to pre-emptorily enumerate your poultry, Sunday afternoon's Fremantle v Melbourne game is it.

At the first change Freo had already covered the spread, up 31 points facing just a 26.5 point handicap (which, of course, we'd conceded). By half time, Freo had extended its lead to 39 points and I was mentally adding the value of a Fremantle head-to-head and line win to the weekly tally. But then the Dees rallied, kicking the first 6 goals of the third term before heading into the sheds at three-quarter time just 8 points down, then closing within a kick for large portions of the final term, only to fall short by 11 points.

So, the Recommended Portfolio chalked up a small profit on this game, adding to the small profit accrued across the seven earlier games, to leave it up 1.7% for the weekend and now down just 9.7% for the season.

It'd all started so much more positively for the Recommend Portfolio, however, with the first three contests producing the required results, including underdog wins by the Crows and the Pies. Essendon started the nonsense after starting promisingly to lead 26 to 9 mid way through the first term of their game, before allowing 6 goals in each of the next two terms and eventually going down by over 5 goals to the bottom-of-the-table Eagles.

The Dogs then narrowly did what was asked of them, winning and covering the spread by just 3.5 points, before Richmond nodded off in the third term of their game, kicking just one behind to the Roos' 5.3, triggering a 50-point loss that was as expensive to Investors as it was to the Tigers' finals aspirations (if they had any).

Still, at least the Recommended Portfolio moved a mite closer to season-long profitability, which is something that can't be said of MIN#002's portfolio, which dropped 1.9%, and MIN#017's portfolio, which dropped 5.4%.

Here's the latest Dashboard with all the details.

The Heuristic-Based and ELO-Line Funds both ventured further into profitable territory this week and these Funds remain the only two that have been profitable across the season. Hope and Prudence are though within just a few cents of that same exalted status. Amongst the other Funds, Shadow probably needs a few weeks of solid profitably to reach the magic $1 price point, and New Heritage requires - well, let's just call it an extended run of favourable outcomes (sorry MIN#017).

On tipping, Easily Impressed II and Ride Your Luck produced the weekend's best performances, each bagging 6 from 8, which was enough to drag Easily Impressed II into joint leadership of the MAFL Tipping Competition alongside Easily Impressed I on 85.5/128 or about 67%. BKB had a terrible round, scoring just 3 from 8, consigning it to equal third-last.

Positions on the MARS Ratings table were swapped like guernseys at a Grand Final this week, as every team but Geelong and St Kilda found themselves in a different ladder position to that which they occupied at the commencement of the round.

Hawthorn and West Coast were the week's biggest climbers, jumping two places to 5th and 14th respectively, while Carlton were easily the week's biggest fallers, dropping three places to 9th as a result of losing to the Swans by 39 points.

Other climbers were Collingwood, Sydney, Adelaide, the Roos and Melbourne, and other fallers were the Dogs, Lions, Freo, Essendon, Port and Richmond.

Nine teams are still rated over 1,000, and the gap between 9th and 10th is a little over 16 Ratings points.

With so many upset and sizeable wins this weekend, all Margin Tippers suffered. Every Margin Tipper's Mean APE declined, by amounts ranging from 0.4 to 0.7 points, leaving BKB remaining in 1st position on this metric and LAMP and HAMP in 2nd and 3rd, HAMP nudging ELO into 4th.

With the exception of HAMP, Margin Tippers' Median APEs also rose this week. This left LAMP leading on this metric and ELO and HAMP in joint 2nd.

HELP recorded 4 from 8 on line betting - the same score that the Super Smart Model recorded - and generated probability scores of no particular note.

The Super Smart Model recorded a Mean APE for the round of just over 39 points per game, which is virtually identical to the MAPE recorded by BKB, so there's nothing much to write about there either.

The Bookie Probability Model's two home-team wagers on the Crows and the Pies would both have been successful.

To finish, I'll note that this season continues to be one in which the benefits of leading are manifest. In only 15 of the 127 games so far in which there has been a clear winner has that winner not been the team leading at 3-quarter time, and in only one more game has that winner been tied at three-quarter time. What's more, no team has been rundown after leading by 3 goals or more at three-quarter time, and only 3 teams have been rundown after leading by 3 goals or more at half-time, and only 2 after leading by 3 or more goals at quarter-time.

MAFL 2010 : Round 16

Faced with six home team favourites Investors could easily have been facing another dose of high risk, low potential return wagering this weekend, but a combination of moderate wagers on the two at-home underdogs and larger wagers on some of the more attractively priced at-home favourites has resulted in a far more balanced portfolio of wagers, at least for those with the Recommended Portfolio.

New Heritage is back to its profligate ways, finding six teams sufficiently to its liking to risk 60% of the Fund on them. Its four largest wagers are on teams priced in the $1.15 to $1.40 range, however, so it'd be fairer to call it brave rather than suicidal.

The Heuristic-Based Fund, currently entrusted to the Short-Term Memory I heuristic, is the next-most active Fund, making five wagers totalling 25% of the Fund. Four of these wagers are on favourites and one is on an underdog. Prudence has also made five bets but its five represent a marginally smaller 24% of its Fund. In keeping with its name, Prudence has outlaid money only on favourites.

Shadow has made four wagers totalling 20% of the Fund, all on favourites also, and ELO's made three wagers totalling 15%, two on teams giving start and one on a team receiving it.

Hope is this week's, and indeed this season's, least active Fund. It's made just two bets totalling 9% of the Fund, though one of these is a weekend-defining 5.9% on Adelaide at $3.75 facing the Cats at Football Park on Friday night.

Hope's two bets represent the entirety of MIN#002's wagering activity this week, while New Heritage's six represent MIN#017's weekend pleasure and pain.

For those with the Recommended Portfolio the 25 wagers represent about 27% of the entire Fund.

Here's the detail:

For Investors with the Recommended Portfolio the weekend's key matches are Adelaide v Geelong, which is the matchup offering the largest potential gain, and the Dogs v Port game, which represents both the largest possible loss and the largest swing between potential win and potential loss. In truth though, all the games except Collingwood v St Kilda and Carlton v Sydney matter to those with the Recommended Portfolio this weekend as all of them carry potential swings of 5.5% or more.

MIN#002 cares most about the Essendon v West Coast game, as it represents for him both the largest possible gain and the largest swing between potential win and potential loss.

MIN#017 faces six games for which the potential swing is 12% or more. Only the Adelaide v Geelong and Carlton v Sydney games don't meet this description. The Collingwood v St Kilda and Richmond v Roos games offer about a 6% upside, the Dogs v Port game threatens a potential 12.5% loss, and the swing between the best and worst possible outcomes is greatest for the Dons v Eagles clash where the difference is almost 15%.

Here's the Ready Reckoner:

For those with the Recommended Portfolio, the profitability equation is a simple one this week: the results in at least five of the seven games need to go their way.

Tipsters, if those in MAFL can be considered a reliable guide, face a difficult time with three of the weekend's games. Two more of the games wold appear to require some thought, and the remaining three are the proverbial no-brainers.

Here are the details:

• Geelong are 9-6 favourites over Adelaide. All five Margin Tippers are on the Cats and are predicting victory margins between 3 and 23 points. ELO is the tipster at the top of the range and, by tipping the Cats by 23 points, passed on the opportunity to make a line bet on Adelaide by just half a point. ELO aside, the other competition leading MAFL tipsters - Easily Impressed I, Short Term Memory I and Follow The Streak - are all tipping a Crows win.
• St Kilda are 9-6 favourites over the Pies. In this game, the Margin Tippers are split 3-2 in favour of the Pies, though two of the Margin Tippers opting for the Pies - HAMP and LAMP - have them winning by only 1 point making this their Game of the Round. The four leading MAFL tipsters are split 2-2 on this game.
• Hawthorn are unanimous favourites over the Lions. The Margin Tippers predict victory margins in the 21 to 28 point range, ELO this time being the low bid and therefore declining to wager on the Hawks by just one-and-a-half points.
• Essendon are unanimous favourites over West Coast. Once again the range of victory margins selected by the Margin Tippers is very narrow - 16 to 22 points in this case. ELO tips the Dons to win by 17 points, which is just one half of a point less than the start they're being asked to give on line betting, so again there's no line bet here from ELO.
• The Dogs are unanimous favourites over Port. Margin Tippers predict victory margins ranging from 32 to 64 points. ELO is the tipster predicting the biggest blowout. Its 64 point margin prediction is the largest victory margin it has tipped this year and is the result of the rough 61 Ratings point difference between the sides, coupled with the Dogs' home team status.
• Sydney are 9-6 favourites over the Blues, though all five Margin Tippers are on the Blues with predicted margins ranging from 1 to 17 points. Chi is the tipster predicting the one point win and so has this as his Game of the Round. ELO has the Blues winning by 10 points, which is half a point less than the start that they're giving, so this is yet another game where ELO has declined a bet on the narrowest of bases. ELO aside, the remaining top MAFL tipsters are all supporting the Swans.
• Richmond are 11-4 favourites over the Roos. All five Margin Tippers predict a fifth successive win for the Tigers with margin predictions spanning the range from 1 to 25 points. ELO tips Richmond by 1 point and BKB has Richmond as its longest-priced favourite, which means that this game is both tipsters' Game of the Round. All four of the top MAFL tipsters are on the Tigers.
• Fremantle are 12-3 favourites over the Dees, with the Margin Tippers again being unanimous in their support. Predicted margins range from 26.5 to 33 points. The four top MAFL tipsters are split 2-2 on this game, however, with Easily Impressed I and Follow The Streak siding with Melbourne, and ELO and Short Term Memory I opting for Freo.

Something seems to be deeply, deeply wrong with HELP. This week it's served up eight line tips all on the away team and all carrying an identical probability forecast. Weird.