A Few Tweaks to the Head-To-Head Fund

Over the past week or so I've been analysing in detail the performance of ProPred, WinPred and the Head-to-Head Fund across seasons 2007 to 2010. I'll be writing more about what I've found for ProPred and WinPred on the Statistical Analyses blog, but here I want to explain what I've found for the Head-to-Head Fund, which previously I'd evaluated mainly on its 2009 and 2010 performances, and how I've tweaked the Fund's wagering rules as a result.

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The Tipsters and Funds for 2011

It's February, when a gambler's fancy turns to footy, so it's time I revealed my plans for Investors for 2011. The short version - or the TL;DR version, if you like - is that there'll be 13 tipsters this season, the 11 heuristics from last year (revamped) plus two more, and that there'll only be two Funds, both of them new.

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Meet the MARS Family

For a few years now I've been compiling and publishing the MARS Ratings of all AFL Teams, which I calculate using ELO-style algorithms specially calibrated for football.

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Heuristics V2.0 - Still Worth Following?

As I noted in the previous blog, when I rebuilt the heuristics to cater for the bye, I made a few other what I thought were subtle changes to some of the building block rules on which they're built. My assumption was that these changes would have had minimal effect on the tipping accuracy of each heuristic and, to be honest, I didn't even consider whether it would effect their wagering performance.

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