A Blackjack of Wagers

What is it they say again about old dogs and new tricks?

Buoyed - or perhaps blinded - by recent successes, the Funds have launched a record-equalling 21-bet salvo at the very much suspecting TAB Sportsbet bookie, amongst these wagers another fur-raiser from Chi. He's made 4 wagers this week totalling about 27.5% of the Fund, 3 of them on favourites, but the fourth on Melbourne at $2.80. Such is his faith on the Dees' going back-to-back he's put 16% of the Fund at risk.

Chi's faith in the Dees is mirrored, though with considerably less conviction, by Prudence and Hope, as odd a pairing in wagering as they are in life. Prudence has about 1.5% on the Dees as one of its 6 wagers for the weekend, which total around 20% of the Fund. Its other wagers are on teams ranging in price from $1.12 (Adelaide, 5.6%) to $1.60 (Sydney 3.3%).

Hope has 5.3% on the Dees and two other wagers: 2% on Sydney at $1.60, and 0.3% on Hawthorn at $1.45. In total Hope has put about 7.5% of the Fund at risk.

New Heritage has nothing on the Dees but has 54% of the Fund on 5 other teams. The largest wager is 12.7% on Adelaide at $1.12 and the most improbable is 9.2% on Sydney at $1.60. New Heritage's aggregate wagering of 54% in this round is its third-highest aggregate for the season, trailing only the 64% of Round 13 and the 60% of Round 7.

Line Redux has found 3 acceptable risks for the weekend: the Dogs giving the Pies 12.5 points start, Sydney giving Essendon 8.5 points start, and West Coast receiving 32.5 points start from the Saints.

Looking at the wagers across the Funds I note that Sydney, for the second time this season, finds itself with a wager from every Fund. No other team has enjoyed such unanimous support even once, let alone twice, from our 5 Funds this season.

In total, those Investors with the Recommended Portfolio have about 24% of their Initial Funds at risk, which is the second highest aggregate this season, behind only the proportion that was at risk in Round 13, which was 0.6% higher.

Here's the week's Ready Reckoner:

On tipping:

• The Dogs are 12-1 favourites over the Pies, with FTS the only Pie-eyed tipster.
• Sydney are 8-5 favourites over the Dons, though the Dons have the support of 4 of our top 5 tipsters, excluding only BKB. ELO is tipping an 11-point Sydney win and has this as its Game of the Round.
• Carlton are unanimous favourites over the Tigers.
• Geelong are 12-1 favourites over the Lions. HSH, as has often been the case this season, finds itself the lone tipster supporting the underdogs. Chi, though siding with the Cats, predicts only a 5-point margin making this one of his two Games of the Round [he's trying to cut back to just a couple a week].
• Adelaide are unanimous favourites over Fremantle.
• Hawthorn are 11-2 favourites over the Roos. The Roos' 2 supporters include the highly-ranked STM II and the lesser-ranked EI I.
• Port Adelaide are 9-4 favourites over the Dees. Amongst the Dee-favourers are Shadow and STM II. Chi also tips the Dees but by only 5 points, making this his Alternative Game of the Round.
• St Kilda are 12-1 favourites over West Coast and it's once again HSH that is the outlier.

On line betting:

• Chi favours: the Dogs, Sydney, Carlton, Brisbane, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Melbourne and West Coast
• ELO favours: the Dogs, Sydney, Carlton, Geelong, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and St Kilda

I was reviewing the extended ladder (which can be downloaded from the MAFL Stats site each week) and noticed how strong the Saints' defence has been this season. While their attack has been more than acceptable - they rank 3rd overall in terms of points scored - their defence has been 250 points better than any other team in the league. That's almost 3 goals better per game.

Adelaide, 5th on the ladder, are another team whose success has been based more on defence than attack. They're ranked 9th on Points For and 4th on Points Against. Carlton, who sit 7th on the ladder, have instead relied on attack. The opposite of the Crows, the Blues are ranked 4th on Points For and 9th on Points Against.

In general, defence has had a larger bearing on teams' competition points so far this season than has attack, as evidenced by the slightly higher (in absolute terms) correlation between Competition Points and Points Against (-0.92) than between Competition Points and Points For (+0.85). Put another way, variation in Points Against explains about 12% more (ie 0.92 squared vs 0.85 squared) of the variation in Competition Points than does Points For.

More Green Shoots

This weekend we learned a great deal.

We learned - if we didn't already know - that the Saints are genuine contenders for the flag this year and aren't at all intimidated by the Cats' incredible win-loss record since 2007. We learned that it is possible to make money without relying on occasional improbable victories by rank outsiders and that last weekend's profit wasn't merely a statistical anomaly. We learned that the Hawks aren't good enough to go back-to-back and that the Dees aren't yet focussed on priority draft picks. And we learned that dogs of dubious breeding shouldn't be entrusted with large sums of cash.

Still, it was another glorious weekend's wagering. Combined, across this weekend and last, Investors have landed 31 winners from 33 bets, missing only a line bet on the Cats last weekend and a highly speculative head-to-head bet on the Tigers at $3.75 this weekend. Even then, neither of these bets lost by more than 3 goals.

New Heritage has so far this season won 38 from 49 bets and is up about 45%. Prudence has won 35 from 44 bets and is up about 19%. Hope, inactive this week, has won 7 from 16 bets across the season and is up by about 33%. Line Redux has won 20 from 39 bets and is finally back in the black, although only by about 1%. Chi-squared is what could politely be called the 'outlier'. It's won 7 from 14 bets and is down by around 33%, over one-half of that loss attributable to this weekend's (obvious in hindsight) folly.

For most Investors, the weekend's successes added between about 8c and 9c to their share price. The two exceptions were MIN #002, who was betless this weekend and so marked time, and MIN #017, whose Heritage-only portfolio leapt over 27c.

These increases leave most Investors up by between about 12% and 15% on the season, the exceptions yet again being MIN #002, who's up 33%, and MIN #017, who's up nearly 45%.

Here's a chart showing each Investor's triumphal march:

On tipping, this week's best performance was HSH's 7 from 8. Most other top tipsters scored 6 from 8, though BKB managed just 5, dropping it into joint 3rd place with STM II on 78 from 112 (70%). Shadow and Silhouette remain joint leaders, now on 82 from 112 (73%). CTL fills out the top 5 places with 76 from 112 (68%).

Only one tipster, ELO, is now showing a loss on level-stake, home team only wagering, commencing in Round 6. Applying this same wagering strategy to the tips of our top 3 tipsters would have yielded profits of over 11 units, which represents an ROI of over 10%.

Whilst ELO might not be performing well on head-to-head wagering, it continues to excel on line betting, recording 6 from 8 this weekend to move to 65 and 47 for the season and a profit to level-staking of 10.57 units. Chi had a good line-betting week too, picking 7 from 8 this week, but he's still at less than 50% (he's 54 and 58) for the season.

In running down the Dockers in the final term on Sunday night, Carlton became only the 8th team this season to come from behind at three-quarter time to win and the 1st team to do so when trailing by 2 goals or more at the last change.

As I've commented before, this has not been a season for winning after trailing. About 68% of teams who've led at the first change (ignoring games that were tied at this change) have gone on to win. This is about 1% point higher than the all-time average. Teams leading at the half (again ignoring games tied at the half) have won 81% of the time, up 2% points on the all-time average, and teams leading at the final change (ignoring games tied at this point) have won 93% of the time, up a startling 7% points on the all-time average.

This latter statistic is not, as you might suspect, the result of teams tending to lead by more at the final change this season compared to previous seasons. In fact, even teams with quite slender leads have been hanging on to win at historically high rates. For example, teams leading by between 6 and 11 points have won 85% of the time (up 13% points on the all-time average), and those leading by between 12 and 17 points have won 100% of the time (up 18% points on the all-time average).

The only three-quarter time lead range that has proved more vulnerable this season than has been the case historically is a lead of between 1 and 5 points, which has been defended only 55% of the time this season, 3% points under the all-time average.

Chi Returns As Hope Fades

Chi, as a dog (which he is, so I guess that's a little redundant, but bear with me) is prone to inexplicable bursts of canine euphoria during which times he's apt to bound around like a dog a fraction of his age.

Whatever it is that transports him into these displays of friskiness clearly struck sometime this week just as he was contemplating his weekly wagers. Why else would he have decided to put 17.7% of the Fund on the Tigers at $3.75? His other wager is a much more sedate one: 4.6% of the Fund on the Pies at $1.55.

Prudence has sipped from the same chalice - dog slobber and all - as evidenced by its two most extreme wagers of 1.9% on St Kilda at $2.35, and 1.5% on the Dees at $2.10. As well as these it has three other wagers on teams at prices ranging from $1.30 to $1.55, the largest on being 4.9% on the Swans at $1.30.

New Heritage has also found a lot to like, with wagers in all but the Richmond v Adelaide game. These wagers include almost 12% of the Fund risked on teams priced above $2: Melbourne (5.4% @ $2.10), Port (3.1% @ $2.35) and St Kilda (3.1% @ $2.35). The four other bets range in size from 11.4% on Sydney @ $1.30 to a neither-here-nor-there 0.1% on Carlton @ $1.55.

Line Redux, the only other active Fund this weekend as we are again Hope-less, has found four wagers, three on teams receiving start and one on the Pies, giving start.

Together these produce a Ready Reckoner that looks a lot like this:

Unusually, due mainly to Chi's Richmond wager, all Investors except MIN #017 have roughly equal upside and downside risk this weekend.

On tipping we have:

• Collingwood the unanimous favourites over the Dons.
• West Coast 9-4 favourites over the Dees. Amongst the top six tipsters, the Dees have Shadow, Silhouette and STM II as supporters and the Eagles have BKB, ELO and CTL. Chi has this as one of his four - yes, four - one point margin predictions and hence Games of the Round.
• Brisbane are 12-1 favourites over Port. Only HSH is tipping Port.
• Adelaide are 12-1 favourites over the Tigers. Chi is the sole Tigers fan (hence the wager) but here too is prediction a single point margin making this another of his Games of the Round.
• The Dogs and unanimous favourites over the Hawks.
• Sydney are 8-5 favourites over the Roos. The top six tipsters are split as for the Eagles v Dees clash. This time Shadow, Silhouette and STM II are siding with the Roos and BKB, ELO and CTL are on the Swans.
• St Kilda are 10-3 favourites over the Cats. Geelong have, amongst the top six tipsters, only BKB and ELO in their corner. Chi and ELO are tipping just one point margins and so have this as a/the Game of the Round.
• Carlton are 11-2 favourites over Freo. Only HSH and EI II have tipped Fremantle. Chi though has this as another one pointer, which makes this his fourth and final Game of the Round.

So close are many of the games expected to be this weekend, anyone who tips the card deserves double points in their tipping competition. One measure of this expected closeness is the average points start per game on line betting.This week that statistic is 14.6 points per game, more than two points lower than the next-lowest this season, which was 16.9 points per game in Round 5.

Another measure is the combined probability of all underdogs winning in the round. The probability of that happening this week is about 3,800 to 1, which is roughly 12 surprisal bits. Previously, the lowest this has been this season was about 7,950 to 1, or approximately 13 surprisal bits, which it was in Round 1. In other words, the probability of all 8 underdogs winning this week is roughly twice what it's been for any other round this season.

For Line Betting:

• Chi's on Collingwood, Melbourne, Port, Richmond, the Dogs, the Roos, the Saints and Fremantle.
• ELO agrees except for swapping West Coast in for Melbourne.

Almost Perfect

Wagering weekends don't come much sweeter than this last one. Only Geelong's lack of killer instinct - which surely must be troubling the Cats' coaches and fans alike - spoiled a 15 wins from 15 wagers result.

Still, 14 from 15 was good enough to allow all Investors to record solid gains for the week in amounts ranging from about 5% to 8.5%. On the back of these gains the Recommended Portfolio is now up by over 4% and all other Portfolios are up by between 6% and 33%.

At the Fund level, Hope rose by the largest percentage, climbing 8.5% on the strength of its sole wager on the Dons. The Dons have now contributed more than 34c worth of gains to the Hope Fund, the result of 3 wins from 5 wagers. Overall, the Hope Fund now has a 7 and 9 record.

The next highest increase was recorded by Prudence, whose 7% increase this week thanks to 6 successful wagers, was its greatest single-week increase this season. Prudence now has a 5 from 5 record with St Kilda, a 3 from 3 record with Geelong, and a 30 from 39 record overall.

New Heritage bagged 5 from 5 and jumped 6.3%. It now has perfect records with Geelong (3 from 3), St Kilda (5 from 5), Collingwood (3 from 3), and the Lions (3 from 3). Its season-long record stands at 31 from 42.

The only other active Fund this weekend was the Line Redux Fund, which managed 2 wins from 3 thus registering only its third profitable round in the last 10. It now stands at 16 from 35 for the season.

On tipping, Silhouette and Shadow each scored 7 from 8, moving them to 76 from 104 (73%) for the season, one further tip clear of BKB, whose 6 from 8 left it on 73 from 104 (70%). STM II also scored 7 from 8 and is now on 72 from 104 (69%). Only one tipster picked all 8 winners this weekend: HSH, who now sits on 60 from 104 (58%). No tipster fared worse than 6 from 8.

All that fine tipping has lifted the wagering returns from level-staking our tipsters' tips. Nine tipsters are now showing a profit on level-stake, home-team only wagering, commencing in Round 6, and four of those are also showing a profit on level-stake, season-long wagering.

Moving to line betting, Chi and ELO each tipped 5 from 8 this weekend, which leaves ELO at 59 from 104 for the season and Chi at 47 from 104. Level-stake wagering on ELO line bets is now showing a +7.17 unit return for the season.

Lastly, an update on the Mean Absolute Prediction Error metric. Chi's MAPE is currently 30.9 points per game while ELO's is an exceptional 27.9 points per game, only narrowly trailing BKB's 27.7 points per game.

No Triskaidekaphobia Here

Clearly the Funds aren't superstitious. Why else would they, collectively, choose Round 13 as the round in which to - for most Investors - make their largest outlay?

Foremost for profligacy amongst the Funds is the New Heritage Fund, which this week has found five wagers totalling approximately 64% of Initial Funds at prices ranging from $1.04 (for the Cats) to $1.22 (for Adelaide). So, mercifully, not much in terms of risk for each bet, but a considerable amount in terms of total risk. Indeed, this is the largest amount that the Heritage Fund has wagered in any single round this season.

Prudence, too, has set a record for most Initial Funds at risk this week. It's wagered about 31% of the Fund on six wagers, five of them on the same teams as the New Heritage Fund, but the sixth on West Coast at - wait for it - $3. Since when does Prudence wager on 2/1 longshots?

The Hope Fund is a little more restrained, making just a single wager on Essendon at $2.65 for a smidgeon over 5% of the Fund.

Also somewhat restrained is the Line Redux Fund with 3 wagers this week totalling 15% of the Fund. Two of these wagers are on short-priced favourites offering 44.5 (Brisbane) and 47.5 (Geelong) points, and the third is on the Roos receiving 36.5 points.

Coyest of all is the Chi-squared Fund, which has found nothing to wager on this week.

As I hinted at earlier, combined these wagers represent the largest single-round outlay for all Investors except MIN #002. The table below provides detail about the outlay and return for each Investor profile for each round.

On then to this week's Ready Reckoner:

So, for those with the Recommended Portfolio and for MIN #001 and MIN #015, the Geelong v Port clash is that contest representing the largest potential swing between the best and worst results. For this same group of Investors, the Brisbane v Melbourne matchup represents the next largest swing.

(This week the Ready Reckoner includes information about the best- and worst-possible outcomes for each Investor across the weekend. For example, a perfect set of eight results for those with the Recommended Portfolio would lead to about a 7% gain and, by contrast, a anti-perfect set of eight result would lead to just over a 24% drop.)

To tipping:

• Essendon, the market underdogs, are 9-4 favourites over the Blues. Amongst our best tipsters, BKB, ELO and CTL are all siding with the Blues, while Silhouette, Shadow and STM II are with the Dons. ELO, though coming down in favour of the Blues, has them winning by just 2 points, making this its Game of the Round.
• Collingwood are unanimous favourites over Freo.
• Adelaide are unanimous favourites over the Swans.
• Brisbane, continuing the trend, are unanimous favourites over the Dees.
• Hawthorn are 11-2 favourites over the Eagles. Our two least-performed tipsters in HSH and EI I are the Eagles' only friends.
• Geelong, as is custom, are unanimous favourites over Port.
• The Dogs are the round's fifth unanimous favourites, they over the Roos. Chi, however, has the Dogs winning by just 4 points and therefore has this as his Game of the Round.
• St Kilda are 12-1 favourites over Richmond, the Tiger's sole supporter being EI I, which this year is just about as close to no support at all as it's possible to have.

The only game with any significant implications for our top tipsters is, therefore, Friday nights Dons v Blues clash.

On Line Betting this week, Chi's with all the teams receiving start. ELO differs only in that it's predicting the joint competition leaders in the Cats and the Saints to cover the spread.