MAFL 2012 : Team Dashboard for Round 13

Right now, the teams that rank 1st to 4th in terms of points conceded per game also fill the first four places on the competition ladder, while those that rank 1st to 4th in terms of points scored per game currently lie 6th, 8th, 11th and 4th respectively. It seems then as though success in the competition is more related to defence than it is to offence.

Sydney, Essendon and West Coast's defensive superiority has come from denying opposing teams' opportunities to score: they have the three best records in terms of scoring shots conceded per game of all teams in the competition.

Collingwood, however, has not denied teams scoring shots - it has only the 12th best performance in the league on this measure - but has presented them with opportunities that have been relatively hard to convert. Collingwood's opponents have converted only 46.7% of their scoring opportunities, a rate fully 2 percentage points lower than for any other team in the competition.

Fremantle and St Kilda are two other teams that - like Sydney, Essendon and West Coast - have been relatively good at denying their opponents scoring opportunities. That's why they occupy positions 4 and 6 in terms of scoring shots conceded per game. What's hurt them though is that their opponents have been able or allowed to convert those opportunities at relatively high rates: about 55% of the scoring opportunities they've presented to opponents have been converted into goals. 

MAFL 2012 : Team Dashboard for Round 12

The latest Team Dashboard follows.

This week I'll draw your attention to the columns at the right of the Scoring Shot Data section where I use the Win Production Function that I created last year, which allows me to estimate what a team's winning percentage in a season should be based solely on its offensive and defensive goal and behind scoring statistics during that season.

If we compare the ranking that we obtain from each team's expected winning percentage with current ladder positions we find a difference of two places or more for ten teams:

• Adelaide and Fremantle are 4 places higher on the competition ladder than their scoring statistics suggest
• Collingwood, Geelong and West Coast are 2 places higher
• Hawthorn is 5 places lower (they've won only two-thirds of their games but their scoring statistics suggest they should have an 80% winning rate)
• Carlton, Gold Coast, St Kilda and Sydney are 2 places lower

MAFL 2012 : Team Dashboard for Round 11

Here's the latest Team Dashboard.

(Please note that it will differ from most "official" ladders since I place the teams based on the competition points they've earned per game played so as not to disadvantage those teams that had the bye this weekend).

MAFL 2012 : Team Dashboard for Round 10

The latest Team Dashboard follows.

Looking only at teams' Quarter-by-Quarter performances, one way of classifying them is as follows:

Teams with one relative standout quarter

• Adelaide (weakest in 3rd terms)
• Lions (strongest in 4th terms)
• Gold Coast (strongest in 2nd terms)
• Richmond (weakest in 2nd terms)
• St Kilda (strongest in 3rd terms)
• Sydney (weakest in 4th terms)
• Western Bulldogs (strongest in 2nd terms)

Teams with two relative standout quarters

• Carlton (strongest in 4th terms, weakest in 2nd)
• Essendon (strongest in 2nd terms, weakest in 4th)
• Geelong (strongest in 2nd terms, weakest in 3rd)
• Hawthorn (strongest in 2nd terms, weakest in 3rd)
• Kangaroos (strongest in 2nd terms, weakest in 4th)

Teams with three relative standout quarters

• Collingwood (strongest in 1st and 2nd terms, weakest in 4th)
• Fremantle (strongest in 3rd terms, weakest in 1st and 2nd)
• Port Adelaide (strongest in 3rd terms, weakest in 2nd and 4th)

Teams weak in every quarter

• GWS and Melbourne

Teams strong in every quarter

• West Coast