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Entries from August 1, 2011 - August 31, 2011

Sunday
Aug282011

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 23

Ranking the teams on the basis of what the Win Production Function suggests their winning rate should be given their scoring shot performance across the season, only one change would be made to the composition of the current top 8 on the ladder:  the Dons would drop to ninth and the Roos would grab 8th.

Further, within the top 8 there'd be only one change of order with the Blues taking 4th at the expense of West Coast; the five remaining teams would be ordered exactly as per their position on the competition ladder.

Further down the ladder the shuffling would be only a little more vigorous. Apart from Melbourne, who'd drop from 12th to 15th on the strength of their scoring shot performance, and the Dogs, who'd climb from 13th to 10th, no team would change position by more than one spot.

So, on the basis of just two pieces of data about each team, scoring shot differential and conversion differential, we could replicate the current competition ladder ordering to within one spot for every team bar two of them, neither of them in finals contention. Seems the Win Production Function does a good job of distilling the key aspects of team performance for season 2011, as it has done for many seasons in the past.

Anyway, here's the latest Team Dashboard.

Sunday
Aug212011

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 22

In a post for the Statistical Analysis journal in 2009 I investigated whether it was better for a team to lead or to trail narrowly at the end of a quarter. This analysis was motivated by a journal article investigating the phenomenon for NCAA basketball, which found that teams in this competition that trailed narrowly at half-time went on to win at a rate statistically significantly greater than 50%. I found only scant evidence for this in VFL/AFL football.

Click to read more ...

Sunday
Aug142011

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 21

Here 'tis:

Sunday
Aug072011

MAFL 2011 : Team Dashboard for Round 20

From this week's MAFL Team Dashboard I note that there are two teams sitting below Fremantle that have a superior percentage - the Roos and the Dogs. Further evidence for the fortuity of the Dockers' position resides in the fact that, based on their relative scoring shot production and relative conversion rate for those scoring shots, Fremantle have won almost 1.5 games more than they "should" have.

Other teams whose scoring performance is most misaligned, according to the Win Production Function, with their winning rate are: 

  • Melbourne, who've won just under 2 games more than their scoring statistics would predict
  • The Suns (also about 2 games more)
  • Adelaide and West Coast (about a game more)
  • Brisbane (almost 2 games less)
  • Carlton and the Roos (each over a game less)
  • Sydney and the Dogs (each about a game less)