;)
Sunday, August 28, 2011 at 1:19PM It's been a few years since I chose the key parameters for the MARS Ratings System, which I selected on the basis that they maximised the predictive accuracy of the resulting System. One of those parameters - the percentage carryover of team Ratings from one season to the next - determines each team's initial MARS Rating for the season.
Saturday, August 20, 2011 at 10:35PM To what extent can the head-to-head prices set by the TAB Sportsbet Bookmaker in 2011 be modelled using only the competing teams' MAFL MARS Ratings, their respective Venue Experiences, and the Interstate Status of the fixture?
Thursday, August 18, 2011 at 8:44PM I was curious - and that's rarely a portent of lazy evenings - as to which of the three ratings systems we've been tracking since Round 14 is best, so I set about finding out.
Saturday, August 13, 2011 at 11:16PM We first discussed surprisals back in 2009 (if you perform a site search using the term "surprisals" you'll be linked to a couple of PDFs as well as to a handful of blog posts on the topic) as a method for quantifying the surprise associated with the outcome of a football game.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:31PM With fewer than half-a-dozen home-and-away rounds to be played, it's time I was posting to the Simulations blog, but this year I wanted to see if I could find a better algorithm than OLS for predicting the margins of victory for each of the remaining games.
